Found some time this weekend, so I started my scanners and here is my #SundaySwing 5/1 issue.
I’m not sure if I have to mention that I expect some more blood? I really tried to scan for some bullish short-term setups but none of the results are worth charting and writing about.
So instead I focus on shorter term Bear trades and we’ll see how this plays out. If market decides to revert or traps some more Bulls, be prepared to switch bias and don’t hold losers to long. Expiration is 5/20 for now.
If you want to read my #SundaySwing ideas and some other posts I write right in your email inbox, you can subscribe to my totally free Newsletter.
Blood on the streets, so puts! Short-term expirations, if the market decides to reverse, end the trades immediately.
Since Bear market I do not plan to strictly hold the contracts into expiration or ITM, take profits and move on is the current game for me. Maybe leave some runners. I also, as always, chose cheaper contracts to buy some more and hold a runner after taking profits.
All depends on the actual market situation.
Last weeks #SundaySwing ideas:
While $IWM worked great and was $3 ITM and of expiration, all the other ideas from this swing list failed, sadly.
Disclaimer: Not advice, instead these are my ideas based on my knowledge analyzing the charts for possible swing trades based on #TheStrat. So please always do your own due diligence before entering a trade.
Since I keep getting questions about the colors in my charts and setups:
If some of the broadening formation lines looking a bit curved, it’s because I changed the charts to a logarithmic scale, but they are still accurate.
As always, lets take a look at $SPY and $QQQ for a rough prediction of what I think the market will do next. Or course, it’s just my interpretation, so keep that in mind!
Obviously bearish, FTFC down, currently so signs of a reversal. Even short-term daily that massive 2d red candle from Friday needs above 425, which is 13 points away as of now.
My last annotated Broadening Formation on the Daily chart didn’t gave any support, we traded right through it, now $SPY aims for that next monthly Broadening Formation bottom at around 400.
Quarter is still inside, but near the 2d trigger at 410.64. Which the next target would be 404.00 from one year ago.
So overall, it doesn’t look great for the bulls and I don’t see any good ideas to being long here.
The big tech earnings we had last weeek didn’t helped to turn the market around, so as with $SPY, bearish is the way to go here. FTFC is obviously down and $QQQ broke the bottom of the monthly Broadening Formation last week.
Lets see if it can reclaim some losses, but I honestly don’t think so currently.
Longer term, 297.45 triggers Year 2u-2d, which isn’t that far away.
I usually target around 25-40% of profits on those swings and decide during the market hours if I leave a runner on a position or close the entire one.
To view the charts in full detail, click to open them in a new browser window.
I was shocked to see $DKNG trading down there, looking at the charts there is still some room to go down. If market remains bearish.
Idea here is to trade the Daily 3-2u-2d from Friday which also is a type of Shooter candle. Weekly and Monthly is obviously a continuation. I selected 5/20 expiration to buy some time, if 13.64 triggers, my targets are 13.06, that would trigger Monthly 3-2d-2d which then has 12.26 from the Weekly chart and 11.37 from the Monthly chart as next targets.
Keep in mind that $DKNG has earnings report on 5/6, so I will probably only old a runner if that contract is in profit during ER.
Another Daily trigger idea, $MU like the rest of the market was beaten down quite a bit and I see some more downside. The idea here is the Daily 2u-2d Shooter below 68.02. The first target is 67.06. Interesting next one is 65.86 which would trigger another Month 2d. Since $MU already hit its Monthly Magnitude from a while ago (November 2021) this only works if market remains bearish. The targets I marked on the charts below that monthly trigger are all chosen from the Weekly chart.
Another semi trade idea, another continuation on the weekly and monthly. Idea here is the Daily 2u-1-2d Shooter below 92.77 from Friday. First target is 91.78 from the Daily chart. The next target 90.22 would also trigger the week and month 2d. Final target if this triggers is on the monthly 84.53.
The above contracts are just my ideas, I sometimes switch to a further expiration or closer to the money depending on the price action we get.
As always, no trigger no trade and stick to your stops!
With that — thanks for reading!
Have a nice green successful week!
Surprise, surprise!
Temperatures around freezing and snow on Friday ruined my plans to work on the outside of the house. Typical April weather.
So I had some time to scan through my watchlist of tickers to find some possible #TheStrat trade ideas for a mid-term swing.
For this weeks issue, I’m mainly bearish but found some call trade ideas as well. The two Put trades are very short-term, since we’re in April and May and those months are normally very bullish compared to the start of the year, so we might see a reversal here and the Puts are invalidated.
As written a few times before, in the current market you have to adapt quickly and not stick to a bias and try to hold and hope.
Also keep in mind that stock market is closed on Friday 4/15. Last trading day is 4/14 this week!
If you want to read my #SundaySwing ideas and some other posts I write right in your email inbox, you can subscribe to my totally free Newsletter.
Despite that I have a bearish bias, I found some trade ideas to the upside as well. So lets see how this plays out.
Last weeks #SundaySwing ideas:
Quick and sad:
All longer swings $AAL, $LUV, $NIO triggered and failed. I exited all with a loss beginning of the week as market turned bearish and was glad I didn’t hold because of 6/17 expiration. I will maybe enter again if they hit their entry triggers again.
The only bearish play $PDD I had, ran in the other direction and gapped and never triggered. Strange behavior.
Disclaimer: Not advice, instead these are my ideas based on my knowledge analyzing the charts for possible swing trades based on #TheStrat. So please always do your own due diligence before entering a trade.
Since I keep getting questions about the colors in my charts and setups:
If some of the broadening formation lines looking a bit curved, it’s because I changed the charts to a logarithmic scale, but they are still accurate.
As always, lets take a look at $SPY and $QQQ for a rough prediction of what I think the market will do next. Or course, it’s just my interpretation, so keep that in mind!
And bearish again, FTFC is completely red.
So this time I pull up the TradingView long-term Strat chart and show the Yearly, Qtr and Month to g give some context.
So $SPY needs to break 462.07 this month first to turn bullish again and a 2u-2u continuation. To the downside there is more room, with 415.12 for a 2u-2d Bearish Reversal. This may sound far away, but $SPY traded at $410-420 6 weeks ago.
So even the longer timeframes are all red now. 421.91 is the #SSS50PercentRule yearly trigger for a possible outside year.
I posted a 15min chart last week showing the $SPY Broadening Formation drawn from the 60min chart and it was at the top and we reversed right at this pivot point. So also for the short-term outlook I’m bearish. FTFC is down.
Gap filled on the Daily last week and reversed there. Month is still inside but deep red currently. Friday closed with a 2u-1 inside Day. $457.83 is needed next week for a 2d-2u Bullish Reversal Weekly, but since the week closed red and in the lower third that is a lot of work for the bulls.
Since $QQQ and $SPY move together, the long-term chart looks the same, except that $QQQ is even more red and Bulls have to put in more power to bring it back up.
Looks bearish, FTFC down. Weekly is close to take out the 345.57 from two weeks ago. Month is still inside in the middle, so that will take some bull extra strength to turn this around.
I usually target around 25-40% of profits on those swings and decide during the market hours if I leave a runner on a position or close the entire one.
To view the charts in full detail, click to open them in a new browser window.
Back on the list, I like to trade IWM, because of liquid option chain and not that expensive premiums like SPY and QQQ. Since small cap stocks look bearish short-term, it’s an idea to the downside. FTFC is down, inside month close to take out last months low.
The idea here is a possible 2d-2d Weekly Continuation. Normally I don’t like continuation trades, but if you look on the weekly chart, you see that the last 3 weeks might form a compound bar to take out the 3 from week of March 14th.
Target is 191.88 but I placed some intermediate term targets on the Daily chart as well, 196.15, 192.88 both are ITM if they hit.
That 191.88 target triggers also the Monthly 2u-2d Bearish Reversal with the ultimate target of 187.92. But the expiration for the above contract is to short.
Therefore the 4/29 190p contract would also a valid option.
Musk news pumped the stock up, the idea here is that $TWTR fills the gap to the downside, since as you see on the daily it couldn’t hold the gap up from Monday.
So I’m eyeing on the Weekly 2u-2d Bearish Reversal below 45.83. The gap goes down to 40.96. If $TWTR triggers it may not go down to the gap in the next two weeks, so I chose the 44p to stay ATM and if it drills deeper these contracts should be very profitable as well.
A rare occurence, but since $COP looks strong with the possible 2d-2u Weekly Bullish Reversal hammer above 103.31, I added it to my list. First target is 105.14 and probably 107.52.
Sine $COP has earnings on 5/5 I don’t risk to trade into these. Also it’s at ATH so possible exhaustion risk as well. FTFC is up as well.
Still an inside month and red, but above 38.58 it turns into FTFC up. The idea here is a possible 3-2d-2u Weekly above 38.36 with targets at 39.33, 39.52 and 40.00. Since these contracts are 5/20 expiration there is room left to the upside.
Above 40.00 would trigger a 2d-2u Month Reversal with possible 41.38 targets.
The 5/20 40c have lots of volume, but I go a bit closer ATM with the 39c, these are more spready, so mid-fill would be preferred. If not, the 40c would also a valid option, maybe even with the 6/17 40c expiration.
The above contracts are just my ideas, I sometimes switch to a further expiration or closer to the money depending on the price action we get.
As always, no trigger no trade and stick to your stops!
With that — thanks for reading!
Have a nice green successful week!
PSA: Due to lack of time this weekend, I probably won’t be able to create a #SundaySwing issue.
This is the first time since Oct 21, but due to the better weather other projects around our house outside have priority. Maybe a short edition, but I can’t promise anything.
New Month and a new quarter, so go lite and let the month open up and see how some of the tickers “open” their quarter, but there were a lot of inside Qtr, so this will get interesting for sure.
Since weather is getting better because of spring and I have a lot of DIY projects around the house to do, chart time is currently limited and I focus on other things more.
It is a weekend habit for me, to scan for possible swing setups with #TheStrat scans and approaches I try to find at least some good setups and post them here too.
If you want to read my #SundaySwing ideas and some other posts I write right in your email inbox, you can subscribe to my totally free Newsletter.
Going further out and buy some time is the motto of this issue, with one exception.
One shorter swing:
Longer swings:
Remember this trades are based on monthly triggers, so not only for the upcoming week, keep that in mind.
Last weeks #SundaySwing ideas:
Also swings are still currently hard to trade because of the volatility.
Disclaimer: Not advice, instead these are my ideas based on my knowledge analyzing the charts for possible swing trades based on #TheStrat. So please always do your own due diligence before entering a trade.
Since I keep getting questions about the colors in my charts and setups:
If some of the broadening formation lines looking a bit curved, it’s because I changed the charts to a logarithmic scale, but they are still accurate.
As always, lets take a look at $SPY and $QQQ for a rough prediction of what I think the market will do next. Or course, it’s just my interpretation, so keep that in mind!
Conflict in times here but monthly 2u in April and we’re currently trading more in the upper range for a possible 2u-2u Continuation. However, the last week closed green but with a shooter-like candle and Friday has a red hammer-style candle. So lots of conflicts in here, no real prediction, could run in both directions, for now.
As written last week:
…$QQQ is a 2d green month and is already way above the Monthly 50% Rule trigger at 344.18. To get an outside month the target is 370.10 and this is possible
And $QQQ delivered and hit it’s target to go outside and after it hit it’s target it immediately reversed, so that’s why targets are so important to take profits.
Same conflicts as $SPY mentioned above, weekly shooter but green and month, obviously insight for now, but also closer to the upside trigger.
I usually target around 25-40% of profits on those swings and decide during the market hours if I leave a runner on a position or close the entire one.
To view the charts in full detail, click to open them in a new browser window.
Starting with this short-term swing first, because Put may work, but often only for a short amount of time, so I will watch my targets here exactly and not risk a reversal.
I rewrote this section, because initially the idea was a 2u-1-2d Bearish Reversal Weekly below 39.84. But than I saw that this trigger is also the target from the Daily chart.
Since $PDD closed with a 2u red on Friday, the idea is an earlier entry for a possible 2u-2d Bearish Reversal on the Daily.
If this works out and hits the first target at 39.84, this than triggers the first idea, the 2u-1-2d Bearish Reversal Weekly below 39.84. Target is 38.50 and with the 4/14 expiration there is a bit of time left.
FTFC is down for extra confidence.
The $AAL trade from a few weeks ago that is still valid with the 5/20 expiration. So this is not a copy&paste here.
The idea for this longer-term trade is a 1-2d-2u RevStrat Monthly above 18.45. Since the contracts are cheap and move slow for $AAL, I go with the 6/17 expiration and holiday season upfront, my confidence is high that this strike goes maybe ITM. Targets are all on the monthly 19.11, 19.76 and if all works in my prediction 20.16 as next and finally 20.56 (both from the weekly chart, because monthly would be to far away).
Another airline, holiday season, re-opening. So I’m convinced that they should have some gas in thetank to take off. The 6/17 also has plenty of time and contracts aren’t that expensive.
The idea on $LUV is a 2d-2u Bullish Reversal Monthly above 46.39. My targets are 47.74, 48.31 and 49.38. The ladder two are from the weekly chart, because the next #TheStrat-like target on the monthly chart would be 52.79, th high of November ‘21, not sure if $LUV trades up into that. But for the fun, I marked it on the chart.
I posted on Friday about a possible $NIO longer swing setup because of the green open, but we reversed a bit during the day and the monthly trigger is not that near, but I still think that $NIO might trigger above 23.86 the 2d-2u Bullish Reversal Month. This is also a PMG setup on the month, so the 6/17 contracts buys some time here and the 30c might get ITM if this trade works out.
Targets are 26.40 and 33.80. So a 6/17 25c might also be an option here.
As always, no trigger no trade and stick to your stops, we might see a reversal or a larger pullback before we run higher.
With that — thanks for reading!
Have a nice green successful week!
$NIO - possible 2d-2u Monthly Bullish Reversal above 23.86 #TheStrat
Watching for longer expiration 6/17 calls here PT: 26.40, 33.80
Possible #SundaySwing candidate as well…
Another green week in the books for the market. After the last couple of red weeks, the market ran back above some important levels with no stops in sight.
I wrote last week, that I wasn’t sure if the week was green becaue of OPEX or not, but I would say OPEX didn’t play a role at all, so I remain bullish, but I expect a pullback before it continues higher.
After this rally on almost all of my stocks last week, I seriously having trouble finding great setups for bullish trades that are not continuations and instead reversed last week and are still insight month or are 2u and green.
Last week with 5 ideas I’m back with a smaller list as I do not feel confident trading continuations in highs as you know I like the reversal trades much more.
As mentioned above, only calls this week on my list. I will not trade against the market and go with the money. So currently bullish until some cool-down.
A mixed bag of 4/14 and 5/20 expirations this week, selecting 5/20 for the others ideas with a slightly more OTM contract is also a good option to buy some extra time for the other ideas.
Last weeks #SundaySwing ideas:
Still hot:
Disclaimer: Not advice, instead these are my ideas based on my knowledge analyzing the charts for possible swing trades based on #TheStrat. So please always do your own due diligence before entering a trade.
Since I keep getting questions about the colors in my charts and setups:
If some of the broadening formation lines looking a bit curved, it’s because I changed the charts to a logarithmic scale, but they are still accurate.
As always, lets take a look at $SPY and $QQQ for a rough prediction of what I think the market will do next. Or course, it’s just my interpretation, so keep that in mind!
Two bright green weeks closed at the top, seems like the bulls still want more upside and bears have to fight hard and lost for now. If the rally continues we might see a 3-2d-2u on the monthly chart after staying inside month the whole March.
FTFC is up and to the upside there can only be one target, 458.12 for the 3-2d-2u Month trigger. If not in March, and market runs higher we might see a possible 2d-1-2u Bullish Reversal Month early in April.
There is no reason to trade bearish currently on the shorter swings, everything looks bullish for now.
The only pivot point for the bears would be the Daily top of Broadening Formation we’re nearing and maybe see a reversal here. Higher time frame Broadening Formations have way more room for trading higher.
When $SPY runs, $QQQ does the same, so the only small difference is, that $QQQ is a 2d green month and is already way above the Monthly 50% Rule trigger at 344.18. To get an outside month the target is 370.10 and this is possible, looking at the last couple of weeks.
I usually target around 25-40% of profits on those swings and decide during the market hours if I leave a runner on a position or close the entire one.
To view the charts in full detail, click to open them in a new browser window.
Bounce from the bottom of a weekly broadening formation a few weeks ago and is running higher since then. My idea is the trigger above 83.78 for a possible 2d-2u Bullish Reversal March or if in April, a 2d-1-2u Reversal. The target on the month is 89.58, to give a bit more time I go out to the May expiration.
Intermediate targets from the weekly are 86.97 which will bring the 87.5c nearly ITM already.
Week would be a continuation entry if $ORCL triggers next week, so I would like to see a small reversal or inside week to get a good entry.
Also at the bottom of a broadening formation and we might saw the bottom for now. Month is 2d but turned green, that huge red February candle is a long-term problem. Since $PYPL has earnings report on 5/4 I stick to the 4/14 expiration and eyeing on a possible 2u-1-2u Continuation above 119.35.
Nex targets are short term from the Daily chart, 120.89, 125.28 and then the weekly 129.42 but we might not see this in the 4/14 expiration, so keep that in mind.
Also after the rally of the market last week, $PYPL was red on the week, inside but has a good bit to go before it triggers, if at all.
44.72 as a trigger, looks like a strict continuation idea, but let me explain.
The idea on $LUV is on the monthly chart. 44.47 would trigger the 50 Rule Outside month. Since the month is nearly over and $LUV has earnings on 4/18 I stick to the shorter expiration nearly ITM and expecting some momentum from the weekly chart above 44.72 to run higher.
Target I would like to see in such a short time is 46.25 which would bring the 45c ITM. We have re-opening and early holiday season so it may run more, maybe we see 47.74 as possible target as well. But for now I stick to the pre-earnings expiration on this idea.
Good old $IWM is back on my list, since I’m bullish for now, I go a bit out in expiration and also OTM with this strike. The idea is the break of the inside month up above 209.05 for the possible 3-2d-2u Bullish Reversal in March, or if in April the 2d-2u Reversal. Both have the same triggers and also the same targets. I would like to see 212.44 short-term and 219.38 which is nearly ITM for my idea mid-term. I do not expect the huge Outside January to break above in that “short amount” of time for an ETF like $IWM.
As always, no trigger no trade and stick to your stops, we might see a reversal or a larger pullback before we run higher.
With that — thanks for reading!
Have a nice green successful week!
I’m still unsure if last week was a bull run because of OPEX and Quad-Witch-Week or what caused this 4 massive green days in a row. Nearly 30 points straight up for SPY without a pause. Crazy!
I’m cautiously bullish this week, but as most traders know, there must be at a healthy pullback, that massive gain in such a short time can’t be good for the market. So my ideas for this week are all bullish, but if I see some sort of pullback or maybe even last week was a bull-trap I’ll put my bear-pants on again in the same second.
As I wrote some days ago, you’ve to adapt quickly in 2022 to survive in this shark tank. As you might know, I love to trade and scan and train my eyes for possible setups, so I had to spend some extra-time on my scanners and charts to bring this weeks #SundaySwing issue to you.
Loyal readers have probably also noticed that I’m posting 5 ideas this week instead of the usual 4, added $PLUG as a bonus this week after I already selected 4 ideas.
If you want to read my #SundaySwing ideas and some other posts I write right in your email inbox, you can subscribe to my totally free Newsletter.
As mentioned above, only calls this week on my list. I will not trade against the market and go with the money. So currently bullish until some cool-down.
A mixed bag of sectors to diversify the money in the market.
Last weeks #SundaySwing ideas:
Glad I took profits on all the puts that I swung from the week before ($BYND, $PINS).
Disclaimer: Not advice, instead these are my ideas based on my knowledge analyzing the charts for possible swing trades based on #TheStrat. So please always do your own due diligence before entering a trade.
Since I got always questions about the colors in my charts and the setups:
If some of the broadening formation lines looking a bit curved, it is because I switched to logarithmic scale on the charts, but they are still correct.
As always, lets have a look at $SPY and $QQQ for a rough prediction of what I think the market will do next. Or course it’s just my interpretation, so keep that in mind!
I’m looking from target to target on the weekly and not get overly bullish for now and see what price does after hitting one of the targets.
Mentioned above, 4 bright green days on $SPY, bulls are back for now. There must be a a pullback at some point, but who knows when?
For now, $SPY is back at FTFC up with that move last week. So for now we’re looking on the upper targets.
Continuations are always difficult to trade, month is still inside until 458.12 breaks, which as 14 points away as of this writing. My next targets on the chart ar on the weekly, 448.05 and 451.61.
Look bearish last week and now here we are with $QQQ also FTFC up. Bears worked hard to fullfil the 2d on the month and after hitting that magnitude (318.26) it reversed. FTFC up, so bulls are in control for now.
I usually target around 25-40% of profits on those swings and decide during the market hours if I leave a runner on a position or close the entire one.
To view the charts in full detail, click to open them in a new browser window.
Not the usual stock on my list, but my scanners found it because of a good looking 2d green week. The idea is a 2d-2u Bullish Reversal Weekly above 134.76. Since Friday was an green inside day, that level could trigger soon. Month is still deep red, but last week $CLX took out June 2018 lows and reversed. So $CLX have a good chance of exhaustion risk on the monthly as well and we could see a reversal here.
Since the candles are pretty big on the weekly, my intermediate-term targets are from the daily chart, 136.85, 145.44 and 147.50. The price at 145.28 turns the month green into FTFC up.
Not the most liquid option chain, so keep this in mind! $CLS has earnings on 4/29 so I currently stick to the shorter expiration and avoid the earnings.
Still an inside month green hammer near taking out last months high of 25.96. That is also the idea here above 25.96 for a 2d-1-2u Bullish Reversal Monthly. Outside week last week closed near that trigger as well, FTFC is up, so it looks like BLNK has some charge left to go up.
The next targets are from the monthly 27.79 and 29.15 from the weekly chart.
The option chain is a bit weird here, because on the 5/20 expiration which would be my favorite here, there is no Volume or OI and highest strike is 29c. So I stick to the shorter expiration and keep an eye on my profit level if $BLNK triggers.
Like on $CLX above, not the most liquid option chain so I pay extra attention to the premium and spread when entering.
The 6/17 expiration has much more flow on higher strikes, but earnings on 5/12 let me stick to the 4/14 expiration.
Also have a look at the OI for 4/14 expiration if you look for a higher strike with cheaper premium.
If $BLNK above works, $PLUG might also run up and since $PLUG has a better option chain this might be an alternative as well.
Idea here is the 3-2d-2u Bullish Reversal Weekly above 26.36. FTFC is up and month is 2u in-force. Weekly target next is 26.74 and then on the monthly chart 29.27.
Energy sector lost money last week because money was moved to other sectors. If this changes I still think that energy goes up. Month and Week are both green, Month 2up in-force. Looking for a 2u-1-2u Measured Move Weekly above 58.19 into highs from 2019. Targets are 60.73, 63.42 and 68.83.
The risk on $OXY is mid-term exhaustion risk on the upside and it could drop if sector also loses power, so please keep that in mind.
From a flow point of view, the 60c for the 4/14 expiration has way more volume but is also a lot more expensive, so the 60c 4/14 would also a possible trade.
Back on my list, $AAPL long, keep in mind that I’m an Apple perma-bull :-)
Idea here is the 2d green last week above 164.48 for a 2d-2u Bullish Reversal Weekly, 164.69 turns the month green into FTFC up.
The targets are 165.02 and 168.91 for now. With 4 weeks expiration on that contract the 170c might be in the tank.
Since $AAPL has a large amount of flow the Open Interest map give no clear view to me, Algo flow on Tradytics is slightly bullish and the heatmap looks good for the 4/14 expiration.
With that — thanks for reading!
Have a nice green successful week!
Since I have some outside DIY projects running on my house and weather gets better, my free time is shifting into that projects and therefore fewer time on the weekend for my trading hobby.
Enjoy reading this – shorter than usual – weeks issue!
As you might know, I love to trade and scan and train my eyes for possible setups, so I had to spend some extra-time on my scanners and charts to bring this weeks #SundaySwing issue to you.
Please be aware that we have Quad-Witch coming up, 3/18 expiration. So everything can happen, also all the other news stuff currently happening in the world will keep the volatility pretty high, so take my ideas with a grain of salt. As I tweeted a few weeks ago, you have to adapt quickly and change the direction if it’s necessary.
As mentioned above, because if time, I only selected 2 tickers for this weeks issue, there are some other good setups, like $UPST, $ETSY or $OXY. But premiums are pretty high on the 4/14 expiration, so I have an eye on these additional tickers for eventually weekly expiration trades if they hit some of my triggers.
Only 2 tickers this week, because of time and lag of good “cheap” contracts for the April expiration.
The 5/20 expiration on $AAL is not a typo ;-)
Last weeks #SundaySwing ideas:
Disclaimer: Not advice, instead these are my ideas based on my knowledge analyzing the charts for possible swing trades based on #TheStrat. So please always do your own due diligence before entering a trade.
Since I got always questions about the colors in my charts and the setups:
If some of the broadening formation lines looking a bit curved, it is because I switched to logarithmic scale on the charts, but they are still correct.
As always lets have a look at $SPY and $QQQ for a rough prediction of what I think the market will do next. Or course it’s just my interpretation, so keep that in mind!
Nice outside day on Friday into the close, as mentioned last week, I stick my target. $SPY will visit the 400-area soon. The magnitude currently is 410.64 from 3 weeks ago, which we didn’t reached last week.
I also tweeted on Friday that $SPY triggered the 50% rule (#SSS50PercentRule) again for the year. So of course it won’t instantly get down to that levels but the probability is there.
$QQQ aalso outside day on Friday right into the close, also didn’t hit its weekly magnitude of 318.26, that’s my next target I have an eye on.
I usually target around 25-40% of profits on those swings and decide during the market hours if I leave a runner on a position or close the entire one.
To view the charts in full detail, click to open them in a new browser window.
I know what you’re thinking… FTFC to the downside, big red on the month, wtf… Let me explain.
$AAL hit it’s monthly magnitude, dropped deeper and instantly bounced back up from 12.44. Looking to a bounce of a monthly broadening formation back up, since it’s influenced – like all travel stocks – from re-openings and holiday season is just starting, I think now is a great time to go long. I selected a pretty cheap contract with plenty of time that even covers April earnings reports.
Idea here is, to get long above the 2d-2u Bullish Reversal weekly, the weekly target would be 17.46, but first it would trigger 17.07 for month runing green again, which would also switch FTFC completely. I don’t expect this to be happen in one week, that’s why I selected a far out expiration to play this out. If this won’t happen in March, the 17.07 would also trigger a pretty sweet 1-2d-2u Bullish RevStrat Month with target around 19.11.
And as always, if it doesn’t trigger, we don’t trade it.
FTFC to the downside, month is 2u but red with a good potential of going outside month. If $TGT triggers next weeks 2u-1-2d Bearish Reversal Weekly below 206.70 the next target is 195.85, which is far away, but in between the trigger and that target is 203.26, which is the 50% Rule trigger for a possible outside month down to 184.00.
With some time on these contracts, even it the outside month is not finished in March, this is setting up a possible 2u-2d Bearish Reversal Month for April with that target.
I don’t expect that contract go ITM, but a drop to around 200 by end of March would double the premium in these contracts.
Spread is a bit wide, so this will not be a MKT order for my at trigger.
With that — thanks for reading!
Have a nice green successful week!
With the weather finally turning spring-like here, I’m starting my solar carport DYI project this weekend.
So it is very likely that there will be no #SundaySwing post from me this weekend.
Have a great weekend!
This week is a short edition, spent the whole weekend with doing family things. But for my own learning, writing my ideas down for next week, helps me to improve myself to get better.
Again doing only short-term swings this week, because 3/18 expiration is OPEX Friday and due to the high volatility every day can change everything.
As tweeted last week about the $BA short setup, to survive in the current market, you have to adapt quickly and switch to Puts, even if you planned a swing on the long side 2 days before.
The only way for me, is to watch the market daily and skip the swing ideas and not stick to them and lose money.
After last weeks development, more Puts than Calls and we’ll see how this plays out.
Quick update, since it wasn’t that great, I was a slightly bullish and I failed with the setups. AAPL triggered but also couldn’t hold the line and broke down on Thursday with the market.
Everything else didn’t even trigger.
But I still keep an eye on $T for the 24.11 trigger next week.
Disclaimer: Not advice, instead these are my ideas based on my knowledge analyzing the charts for possible swing trades based on #TheStrat. So please always do your own due diligence before entering a trade.
Since I got always questions about the colors in my charts and the setups:
If some of the broadening formation lines looking a bit curved, it is because I switched to logarithmic scale on the charts, but they are still correct.
As always lets have a look at $SPY and $QQQ for a rough prediction of what I think the market will do next. Or course it’s just my interpretation, so keep that in mind!
Doji candle last week which we closed green, no idea how since it doesn’t felt green. Still staying bearish.
The Q’s look even more bearish to me with that 2u and red weekly candle. Expecting a 2u-2d Bearish Reversal weekly as well. Target would be 318.26 again. So let’s see how this plays out. The 318.26 would also trigger another month 2d.
I usually target around 25-40% of profits on those swings and decide during the market hours if I leave a runner on a position or close the entire one.
To view the charts in full detail, click to open them in a new browser window.
Only bullish idea this week and closed the week green. Idea is a 2d-1-2u Bullish Reversal Weekly above 166.50. The next target would be 169.12 and 169.67. So the 170c might not go ITM but should be profitable if the idea works out and $PEPs runs to the upside again. FTFC is of course up on Month, Week and Day.
Last Friday 3/4 close as outside day bright green, gives me extra confidence that $PEP might go higher again.
Bearish idea No. 1 this week, $BYND. Idea is a 2d-1-2d Bearish Continuation Weekly below 42.70. Still an inside month, 41.33 would trigger another month 2d continuation with no real targets left since $BYND trades already below the IPO price.
So therefore the 40p but also not expect it to go ITM, I simple don’t know what follows below 41.33.
Next bearish idea, since market is bearish as you should have realized by now :-)
$LCID with the 2u-2d Bearish Reversal Weekly below 22.01. The monthly trigger for another 2d is 21.77. Below this it could get really ugly for $LCID. Looking back the weekly charts in September 2021 where 18.70 is my next target.
No bullish reversal insight on $PINS. Idea is the 3-2u-2d Bearish Reversal Weekly below 23.76. Target is the low of the outside week 22.31 which also triggers another 2d month. If market really stays bearish also 19.91 could be possible, but keep in mind that for the 3/18 expiration only 2 weeks are left.
With that — thanks for reading!
Have a nice green successful week!
While all Puts from last weeks #SundaySwing issue had(!) worked great, that gap downs made it difficult to get in after the news.
And since I don’t know what we expect into next week, it’s difficult to select the proper swing ideas.
There are lots of weekly 2d green hammer setups, but due to the market volatility nothing is guaranteed.
We have a new month starting on Tuesday, so a new monthly candle and I expect a lot of inside months because of the huge February candles we had, so Tuesday will be the day where we really look at, let them open!
You can also subscribe to my Newsletter, to get the #SundaySwing issues right into your inbox when I publish them.
Still sticking to the 3/18 expiration (one exception), 3 weeks time for this to play out. wearing my bull-pants again if we keep running, still cautious if this was not a dead-cat-bounce
As stated above, market dropped down hard and all puts came into play, however the gaps made it difficult to enter.
On $NCLH and $PTON I could take good profits, while I didn’t traded $BABA. The only bullish setup $PG didn’t even came close to it’s trigger.
From the 2/7 #SundaySwing ideas, $X 3/18 25c worked great as well.
Disclaimer: Not advice, instead these are my ideas based on my knowledge analyzing the charts for possible swing trades based on #TheStrat. So please always do your own due diligence before entering a trade.
Since I got always questions about the colors in my charts and the setups:
If some of the broadening formation lines looking a bit curved, it is because I switched to logarithmic scale on the charts, but they are still correct.
As always lets have a look at $SPY and $QQQ for a rough prediction of what I think the market will do next. Or course it’s just my interpretation, so keep that in mind!
Last week was crazy and nearly all setups I have this week, looking nearly the same on the weekly chart. Hammers counters shooter, which is often a great bullish actionable signal.
If $SPY triggers week above 437.75, it could target 448.05 next, with intermediate targets on the daily of 438.66, 443.80.
Like $SPY, looks bullish with intermediate Daily targets at 346.81, 353.46.
If you look at that weekly green 2d candle, if we really reverse down again, I don’t see a 2d weekly happen, that would be 318.26 has to be taken out.
I usually target around 25-40% of profits on those swings and decide during the market hours if I leave a runner on a position or close the entire one.
To view the charts in full detail, click to open them in a new browser window.
Still on the March 18th expiration this time, not that much time as normally, but due to the high volatility and market is still not a bull market again, for me I look at closer expiration.
However, I looked up the 4/14 expiration on some of the ideas and if you look at the monthly candles, that expiration with a slightly more OTM strike is also an option.
If you follow my ideas here, you know that I’m an Apple Fanboy and perma-bull, so as I saw that possible 2d-2u Bullish Reversal Weekly above 166.69 I had to place it on my list this week.
The month is 2d and red, so it will take a lot of work for the bulls to bring this back up, but on Tuesday new month and if it runs we have FTFC up if week triggers and keeps going.
My target is 173.34 which should be doable with the 3/18 expiration, if we going up!
Hammer counters shooter and a small gap on the weekly chart. Massive Doji-style candle on the month, with good chances to go green and continue in March.
If $BA triggers above 206.90 it is a nice 1-2-2u RevStrat Weekly combo with the targets of 219.68 and 223.23. Above 223.23 in March would trigger the 3-1-2u Bullish RevStrat Month.
Slow mover that was taken down as well, but the 1-2-2u Bullish RevStrat Weekly is my idea here as well. Above 48.29 the targets are 50.56 and 52.00. I selected the 3/18 expiration, but the 4/14 expiration with the 52.5c or 55c would also be an option.
Month is 2d and red and needs 55.55 in March to trigger a 3-2-2u Bullish RevStrat, so if you go further OTM, 4/14 would be my expiration for this.
A new one on my #SundaySwing ideas, AT&T, slow mover and the only one this week with the April expiration. The contracts are pretty cheap and the 25c is a valid ITM target at that date.
Idea is the 2-2u Bullish Reversal Weekly above 24.11, with targets at 24.45, 24.65 and 25.54.
At 24.91 in March it would trigger a 2-2u Monthly Bullish ReversaL which would target the 27.48. With the April expiration if it runs the 25c could be a good amount ITM. Keep in mind that $T is a really slow mover even in the current market!
With that — thanks for reading!
Have a nice green successful week!
The market is crazy right now, we see movements per day up or down that are bigger than the movements of a whole month 2-3 years ago.
Which makes it difficult to find good #SundaySwing trades, but my scanners worked hard to find possible great setups…
The #SundaySwing posts are also available as a Newsletter right in your inbox. Feel free to subscribe if you want to read it as a mail.
Mixed content of bullish and bearish ideas this week. However due to the market, bears lead 3:1.
The rotation to other sectors caught me completely on the wrong foot last week. The Energy sector was so strong and didn’t showed and weakness. I even did a Youtube video on sectors with Tradytics to show how to find great setups.
And then… Energy got crushed right on Monday. The only ticker that got triggered is $DVN. The others didn’t even come close. The good thing is, that they not triggered, so no money invested and therefore nothing lost.
The stocks from the week prior, 2/6 SundaySwing are still very profitable and some even already hit my profit targets and I exited and took the profits.
Disclaimer: Not advice, instead these are my ideas based on my knowledge analyzing the charts for possible swing trades based on #TheStrat. So please always do your own due diligence before entering a trade.
Since I got always questions about the colors in my charts and the setups:
If some of the broadening formation lines looking a bit curved, it is because I switched to logarithmic scale on the charts, but they are still correct.
I’m adding Tradytics screenshots for additional confirmation of my strikes. The link to Tradytics is a referral link, so if you find that service helpful and want to try it for yourself, I would appreciate it, if you use that link to support me.
As always lets have a look at $SPY and $QQQ for a rough prediction of what I think the market will do next. Or course it’s just my interpretation, so keep that in mind!
The weekly candles are still inside the compound outside bar from 4 weeks ago, closer to the downside, which would also trigger the month 2d below 420.76. Can’t see a good bullish reversal, not before SPY runs above 448.05 for a 2d-2u Bullish Reversal on the Weekly.
Same for $QQQ, 334.15 is the trigger for the month 2d and it is very close to this trigger.
I usually target around 25-40% of profits on those swings and decide during the market hours if I leave a runner on a position or close the entire one.
To view the charts in full detail, click to open them in a new browser window.
As you notice below, I’m going out to the March 18th expiration which gives me ~6 weeks of time if one of the stocks triggers this week and I’m suprised how “cheap” some of the contracts are compared to the tech stocks.
The whole Consumer Stapes sector ($XLP) was strong, PG is one of them, so with the possible 2-2u Bullish Reversal on the Week I set an alert to buy the 165c contracts with 3/18 expiration. Only risk here is, that PG is near ATH at 165.35.
My targets are 162.26 and 164.98 before ATH.
I selected that contract because of the price and some time. $BABA contracts on the bearish side are more expensive and I don’t expect it to go ITM. But if it makes my projected 25-40% I’m happy with it.
The idea here is the 3-2u-2d Weekly Bearish Reversal below 117.20.
FTFC is red and if BABA can stay inside month in February, there are still 3 weeks on the contract to go for a possible 2u-1-2d in March.
Nothing noteworthy on Tradytics, except a huge LEAP for 350c in 2023, so I ignore that for now because that is far OTM.
Travel sector seemd strong but lost some momentum on most of the same stocks like RCL, CCL and NCLH. I picked NCLH because of the red week insde. A possible 2u-1-2d Bearish Reversal Weekly is the idea here below 20.91. Target is 20.41 and maybe 19.14 as well.
FTFC is mixed because Month is still green, but 2u, eyeing on the 50% rule below 21.02, which also has the possible target of 18.31.
After good earnings last week it seemed like $PTON can run up again. For me after watching the weekly and daily charts it looks more like a TTO setup to shake some bulls out and now go lower again. The idea is a possible 2u-1-2d Bearish Reversal Weekly below 29.08. Targets are 27.91 and 26.59. The trigger for Month red is 27.39 which would turn PTON into FTFC down. The monthly target in March for a possible 2-2d would be 23.21.
The 3/18 25p is way more liquid but also way OTM yet, that’s why I selected the 27p here and will try to get a fill near the bid.
That’s it for this weeks #SundaySwing issue. If you found some ideas or learned something from my thoughts, feel free to give me some feedback and share this post to help reach more audience and educate more people trading with #TheStrat.
Have a nice green successful week!
Instead of posting a #SundaySwing ideas video this week, I decided to switch the format and show you how I find the setups, what tools I use, how my process is to select stocks and so on.
Available in @Youtube now: youtu.be/nYpGzlCfx… #TheStrat
The volatility we had the last couple of weeks are wonderful to trade, but also make it hard to collect a #SundaySwing list of trade ideas for a longer time frame.
Earnings season Q1 of the big tech companies is almost over, but we have other things affecting the markets heavily in the next couple of days and weeks. So be prepared to constantly adapt to the changed situation and change you mind from bear to bull and back again on a daily basis if necessary.
For this issue I focus on strong stocks of a sector that kept going up, Energy!
Not a good start into the week for my selected tickers from the 2/7 #SundaySwing list.
So far, $X is going in the direction and has triggered, $PEP is also triggered to the downside but not where I want it to be for a first target.
While $DKNG and $BYND both started strong in the complete other direction and didn’t even gave an entry. But this is not a negative thing, no trigger - no trade - no money lost!
Disclaimer: No advice, instead these are my ideas based on my knowledge analyzing the charts for possible swing trades based on #TheStrat. So please always do your own due diligence before entering a trade.
Since I got always questions about the colors in my charts and the setups:
If some of the broadening formation lines looking a bit curved, it is because I switched to logarithmic scale on the charts, but they are still correct.
I’m adding Tradytics screenshots for additional confirmation of my strikes. The link to Tradytics is a referral link, so if you find that service helpful and want to try it for yourself, I would appreciate it, if you use that link to support me.
As always lets have a look at $SPY and $QQQ for a rough prediction of what I think the market will do next. Or course it’s just my interpretation, so keep that in mind!
As last week, $SPY still is choppy because the month is still inside and no chance to change this anytime soon. It would need 479.98 for a bullish breakout, or 420.76 for the bearish trigger. As of Friday, 440.46 is much closer to the bearish trigger to me. So I have my Bear-pants on and watch the price action every day.
The only short-term target, if we break the low of last weeks 2d 438.94, the next target might be 427.82 from the daily.
Inside month on $QQQ as well but even closer to last months low of 334.15. The week was 2d and read with nearly no lower shadow, so I expect another 2d below 345.80. My projected target short-term would be 337.95 if we break the low.
I usually target around 25-40% of profits on those swings and decide during the market hours if I leave a runner on a position or close the entire one.
To view the charts in full detail, click to open them in a new browser window.
As you notice below, I’m going out to the March 18th expiration which gives me ~6 weeks of time if one of the stocks triggers this week and I’m suprised how “cheap” some of the contracts are compared to the tech stocks.
Strict alphabetical order, beginning with $COP. FTFC is up and $COP caught my attention because of an inside week and an inside day on Friday. The idea here is to get in on the 2-1-2 Bullish Continuation on the weekly above 94.33. I watch the market on Monday and maybe even get an early entry on the 2-1-2u Bullish Continuation Daily above 93.69.
The only thing I’ve to watch for is, that $COP trades at ATH, so there is the risk of exhaustion and I will have set my stops tight when I enter that position on a trigger.
There are no clear targets because of ATH, which is the only difficult thing here to trade, so I will resort to my tried and tested method and target the 30-40% profit and then see what the market does.
Since $COP is not the typical option trade for me, neither it is for Tradytics. I looked the Options Dashboard up for $COP and there is not much information available to get additional information from.
Another inside week, $DVN might trigger the 3-2-2u Bullish Continuation above 54.15. First target is 55.44 from last week and then… we do some time traveling here, the next target of 59.80 is back from July 2015! Not a typo and since the energy sector is strong the 60c might go ITM in the next weeks if $DVN still runs with the sector. I don’t really need to mention that $DVN has FTFC to the upside.
Slight bend of my rules that I normally don’t trade stocks that are below $20. But $KMI looks so tempting and is still on an inside month which I think will break to the upside and then it is really near to the $20 mark :-)
My entry trigger here is the weekly 1-2-2 Bullish Continuation with lots of targets to the upside, that’s why I think a continuation trade here is very likely and might be successful. The 18.20 as first target also triggers the month 2-2u Continuation. And even if it doesn’t trigger in Februray, the 3/18 contract has time so that a possible 2-1-2u Continuation Monthly for next month is a possibility. The target after 18.20 is 18.76 and then some more, but I’m eyeing on that as my exit. The 18c should be also very profitable if this happens with plenty of time before expiration.
Like $COP above, Tradytics has not much information on $KMI that is worth to show. As of now the 3/18 18c has 28k Open Interest, which is a lot and therefore liquid with only a $0.01 spread.
The last idea for the upcoming week is another 2-1-2u Bullish Continuation above 30.25, $SU, which has also FTFC up.
Since $SU is not a fast mover, I select the surprisingly cheap ITM 3/18 30c contract, which has plenty of time and my next targets are 30.51, 30.90 and maybe 31.94 as well as 32.48. The last two targets are back from January 2020.
But as you see, the 3/18 expiration has some flow and the 6/17 18c as well. So this would also be a possible contract but is to expensive for me.
That’s it for this weeks #SundaySwing issue. If you found some ideas or learned something from my thoughts, feel free to give me some feedback and share this post to help reach more audience and educate more people trading with #TheStrat.
Have a nice green successful week!
Update of
#TheStratAnother crazy week, and I think we will get some more, since #TheStrat loves volatility, I’m having a good time trading short-term swings and otherwise scalping SPY and QQQ during the day.
Most of the big-tech earnings reports are now a thing of the past and we might see some slowdown in that sector. However I focus still not on tech in this issue, because it’s so unpredictable currently. Even the results from MSFT or AAPL could help bring that sector in smooth water.
So I expect some more blood overall, see below for an in-depth analysis.
Mixed feelings for the next week, as you might notice when you see my trade ideas for it.
I warned in the last #SundaySwing issue that we’re in a very volatile market and that also is visible in the results from last weeks ideas.
$AAPL gave an entry on Tuesday and was good until Wednesday, first target was hit, but 2nd target never.
$KO triggered for an entry and reached its targets and was profitable, however I thought theres was a bit more meat on the bone, but it also faded down in Thursday.
$OXY is the trade of the week so far and is still looking good. The 2/18 40c is ITM and we might see the 43.60 trigger, will decide next week if I cash out or roll out to a later date.
The only one that took a bit before lift-off was $WFC, it triggered lat in the week and has not reached my target of 58.11 for now, however, there are still 2 weeks left for the 2/18 57.5c.
Disclaimer: No advice, instead these are my ideas based on my knowledge analyzing the charts for possible swing trades based on #TheStrat. So please always do your own due diligence before entering a trade.
Since I got always questions about the colors in my charts and the setups:
If some of the broadening formation lines looking a bit curved, it is because I switched to logarithmic scale on the charts, but they are still correct.
I’m adding Tradytics screenshots for additional confirmation of my strikes. The link to Tradytics is a referral link, so if you find that service helpful and want to try it for yourself, I would appreciate it, if you use that link to support me.
As always lets have a look at $SPY and $QQQ for a rough prediction of what I think the market will do next. Or course it’s just my interpretation, so keep that in mind!
No clear direction visible to me on $SPY. Month is slight red and right in the middle of that huge outside month January. Week is 2u and green but lost half of it’s gains on Friday. We moved over 20 points on SPY last week. This is more than on some months before, so everything is possible. Therefore no clear targets for me. However, we uncouple next week from the month and might have a better idea on what’s going on.
Since $QQQ and $SPY usually move nearly the same, that might be a hint for $SPY. Month is still inside with a slight direction to the downside targeting last months lows at 334.15. The week was 2up and green but clearly a shooter candle, which still takes 7 points down until we trigger a 2-2 Bearish Reversal on the week. Then the target would be the low of the month as mentioned.
I usually target around 25-40% of profits on those swings and decide during the market hours if I leave a runner on a position or close the entire one.
To view the charts in full detail, click to open them in a new browser window.
Beginning with $X this week, the idea is to enter on a possible 2-2 Bullish Reversal Daily above 22.41 to get in a position for the 3/18 contracts. The week was a big green 2u and we’re still inside month but green. So FTFC is up.
Expecting a run into 25.02 as a first target and 26.17 as next target to trigger the 3-2u Monthly.
I chose this contract because it has plenty of time, is not expensive, covers earnings report on 2/28 and as you see below, got lots of flow from Tradytics as well.
In times like these, we can also focus on some big slow movers that did well during the last couple of months. $PEP trading at ATH the last couple of months, the strategy here is to look on Puts because of exhaustion risk. The shooter - but still green - weekly candle last week give an opportunity to get in a trade if it breaks below 169.56 for a 2-2d Bearish Reversal Weekly. Earnings are next week, so if $PEP gives an entry right on Monday I will enter with a small position, because of ER risk. The 3/18 expiration gives plenty of time to.
My targets are 166.45 for the 2-2d Bearish Reversal Monthly trigger and then targeting the lows of December 2021 with 159.83.
A shorter expiration for $DKNG. Month is inside and red and the week is a shooter-like candle, but green. So as always I only enter if it breaks the low of that week below 20.33 for a 2-2d Bearish Reversal Weekly. The 20p is ATM then and with a bit momentum the magnitude of last months low 17.41 might get targeted.
On 2/18 $DKNG also reports earnings, so this is a safe expiration to exit before earnings.
Another shorter expiration for this bearish trade idea. $BYND closed with a 2u red shooter last week. My entry would be the break of that 56.53 for a 2-2d Bearish Reversal Weekly with the target at 53.10. Earnings report is on 2/24, so also the contracts expire before that. The month is still inside but targeting the low of January for a 2-2d Bearish Continuation.
Tradytics AlgoFlow looks bearish as well for the next couple of days, however the biggest Calls & Puts are looking bullish. So we’ll see if the whales know something here.
That’s it for this weeks #SundaySwing issue. If you found some ideas or learned something from my thoughts, feel free to give me some feedback and share this post to help reach more audience and educate more people trading with #TheStrat.
Have a nice green successful week!
Since the high volatility and video production takes lot of my free time, I decided to not post a video to the ideas this week, so you have to read on if you are interested in this weeks #SundaySwing ideas.
We’re still in full earnings season, with $AMD, $F, $FB, $AMZN and $GOOGL reporting next week, so anything can happen. I also thought about that I pause releasing swing ideas and put a lot of work into the issues and videos because market is so volatile and what price action we have tomorrow could be completely different on Tuesday.
So please take the following ideas from me below with the proper mindset and don’t overtrade and focus really short term for now.
I’ll watch these closely and even if some of them trigger I decide if I really enter it or not. No automated trades with conditional orders for me currently, mostly watching and only scalping the markets with mostly $SPY and $QQQ calls and puts the whole week was fun.
The good thing is, I’m short-term bullish again, but take this with a grain of salt. I diversified the ideas this week to different sectors which hopefully works out :-)
3 out of my 4 ideas triggered and were profitable. $KR is deep ITM with the 46p or 48p currently, $EA ended also ITM on Thursday and $ABNB has some time left and was already ATM last week. The only idea I warned clearly was $JNJ, because of earnings and I was right, I didn’t traded it and they went in the complete opposite direction.
Disclaimer: No advice, instead these are my ideas based on my knowledge analyzing the charts for possible swing trades based on #TheStrat. So please always do your own due diligence before entering a trade.
Since I got always questions about the colors in my charts and the setups:
If some of the broadening formation lines looking a bit curved, it is because I switched to logarithmic scale on the charts, but they are still correct.
As always lets have a look at $SPY and $QQQ for a rough prediction of what I think the market will do next. Or course it’s just my interpretation, so keep that in mind!
On Tuesday a new month starts and the current deep red month of January will end, so we have to wait and see in which direction price will trade, the range traded this month is huge, so will it be an inside month to the upside or more blood below January low of 420.76?
Interestingly, the bottom of the broadening formation on the month, we reach that line, pivot points for that line are the August and October 2021 lows. So February will show us if we might get a nice 2-1u or continue with a 2d-2d. Everything can happen.
I usually target around 25-40% of profits on those swings and decide during the market hours if I leave a runner on a position or close the entire one.
Back on my long swing list, still careful currently and not risking to much, because there are earnings reports in the tech branch as mentioned above. But last week looked good for $AAPL and since I’m an Apple Fanboy - bullish bias, full disclosure! - I aim for calls.
Month is still red, but we start a new one, so ignoring this for now here and focussing on the weekly and daily charts. Idea here is the 2-2u Bullish Reversal on the week with the next targets at 172.54 and 177.18. So the 180c contract I chosen above might be far OTM and I switch to the 175c before entering when it hits the trigger.
The 182.13 is the current months high and if we stay bullish, this is a high magnitude.
No data from Tradytics, because the flow for $AAPL is so huge even for the 2/18 expiration, and I still figure out flowtrades I’m not convinced of flow data and stick to the things I know - #TheStrat.
Coke was strong last couple of weeks when other stocks tanked, and still looks strong to me. However we are near all-time-highs, so if you look at the broadening formation we might be at exhaustion risk. The 62c contract for the short-term is a valid target to me and we might see new ATH before a corrective activity.
So the idea is the trade of the 1-2-2u Bullish RevStrat Weekly above 60.93, with the targets of 61.45 and maybe new ATH. The 62c is cheap but might have not enough time for a slow-mover like $CO. FTFC is up and month is 2u with no signs of a 2d for February so far.
Also not much flow volume on Tradytics that caught my eyes, so I stick to pure price action. AlgoFlow is slightly bearish in the 5d chart, so keep that in mind.
Energy, energy is the sector that pumped since beginning of the year, and $OXY with a liquid option chain and cheap contracts compared to the others in the sector and nearly FTFC up (except on the Day), is my idea this time.
Idea is the weekly 3-2u Continuation, since Month is 2u and green I’m confident that we will see higher prices. Good thing also is, that $OXY traded a lot higher in the past, so we have targets we can aim for. My target for now is the Feb'20 high at 43.60. Trigger for an entry is the weekly break of the outside bar at 38.93.
As you might see from the drawn broadening formation, we might have exhaustion risk short-term and the daily chart currently can develop a 2-1-2d bearish Reversal, but since the month and week are strong I look at the upper side for a trade.
Finally some Tradytics charts :-)
Finance sector was also quite strong, so $WFC caught my eyes here. FTFC is up, month 2u in force and week 2d but green.
My idea here is the 2-2u Bullish Reversal weekly above 55.51. Also the Daily chart with the possible 3-2-2u Reversal looks promising to the upside. The target if 55.51 triggers is the high of the week before at 58.11 currently. Since the contract has 3 weeks time to play out, this is possible for a slow mover like $WFC.
The AlgoFlow from Tradytics is bearish, but looking at the OI for the 2/18 it doesn’t look that bad to me. Keep in mind that I’m not that experienced in flow-analysis, yet.
Mentioned above, I’m currently testing Tradytics for additional confirmation of my strikes. The link to Tradytics is a referral link, so if you find that service also helpful and want to try it for yourself, I would appreciate it, if you use that link to support me.
Have a great weekend and an awesome week ahead! Feel free to share this post if you find it helpful to help any one else who might need it.
What a week! I don’t have to mention that this #SundaySwing issue for the week starting at 1/24 is a bearish one. Surprise, surprise!
Due to the market volatility and the current conditions I won’t trade longer swings for now.
Earnings season starts as well for the big tech giants and since I don’t like to trade short before earnings, tech - besides the massive dip - is a no trade for me this week. Also there is not a single reversal setup that I like on AAPL, MSFT, FB and the rest of the gang. So I stay away from these.
Anyway, I think I found some okay-ish ideas with a confidence for shorter swings, but all as mentioned above, bearish.
I’m also showing you some extra Tradytics* Data for extra confirmation regarding the flow-site of the ideas.
Let them open on Monday and better wait for Tuesday for an entry.
Two out of my 4 ideas triggered and both failed, based on the market conditions at end of week, there was no chance that this will work out. I started slightly bullish into the week, but bears took it down. So $BA and $FUTU triggered and failed. $NIO and $X never triggered, so no entry here, no money lost.
Disclaimer: No advice, instead these are my ideas based on my knowledge analyzing the charts for possible swing trades based on #TheStrat. So please always do your own due diligence before entering a trade.
Since I got always questions about the colors in my charts and the setups:
If some of the broadening formation lines looking a bit curved, it is because I switched to logarithmic scale on the charts, but they are still correct.
As always lets have a look at $SPY and $QQQ for a rough prediction of what I think the market will do next. Or course it’s just my interpretation, so keep that in mind!
This looks bearish, except that small touch of the daily broadening formation below 438.67. So maybe(!!) we bounce up here because $SPY took out all the lows back to October 13th.
To give some more context, here is the larger view from TradingView for the Month, Qtr and 12Month candles.
Here is a larger timeframe view of $QQQ on TradingView as well.
I usually target around 25-40% of profits on those swings and decide during the market hours if I leave a runner on a position or close the entire one.
I was really surprised that a tech stock closed green last week, also in Friday. $EA still has M, W, D up, but the signs also look bearish with a possible 2-1-2d shooter on the daily. On the weekly we have a possible 1-2-2d setup and that’s the idea here. To not look at the daily setup and instead wait if if really triggers the week down below 133.45. The target there is 127.55 for me. Keep in mind that EA has earnings on 2/1 post-market, so that’s why I select that short weekly expiration which is way more risky here.
https://share.trendspider.com/chart/EA/37448qgjb7f
Trades currently at around $156, so the 135p sounds pretty aggressive, but I show you in a second why I think that could be a possible target. Month is currently still inside but we have FTFC down. On the week we have a possible 2d-1-2d Bearish Continuation. I wrote before that these are not my favorite setups, but target of the week 152.41 is near the monthly 2d trigger at 149.44. My next targets then are 141.50 and 130.31.
And here are the promised explanation why the 135p is a reachable target:
Keep in mind that this is the Qtr-Target, so I may roll the 135p out or close the contract, because $ABNB as earnings on 2/24.
Not my favorite setup, lets start with $JNJ this way, because they report earnings on 2/25 pre-market.
So anything can happen and I will not enter that trade if it triggers on Monday or Tuesday, no matter what happens. But if $JNJ will give me a nice reversal entry on the daily at or below 164.47 which is the week 2-2d continuation I’ll watch closely. The month is 2up and red and triggered the monthly 50% rule below 164.88 on Friday. So the next possible target for an outside month is 156.25.
The only real weekly reversal is $KR this week. Below 46.17 it triggers the 2-1-2d Bearish Reversal with a first target at 46.17 and maybe 44.52 if the market helps here. The month is still green and 2up so we’re in conflict currently and need 44.91 to turn it red. The 44.52 would aim for this as well. The extra confidence for the 46p comes this time from a large put order flow on Tradytics which I show you below.
Mentioned above, I’m currently testing Tradytics for additional confirmation of my strikes. The link to Tradytics is a referral link, so if you find that service also helpful and want to try it for yourself, I would appreciate it, if you use that link to support me.
Welcome to a new issue of my #SundaySwing ideas, this time we’re looking into the future with a lot of earnings coming up.
I’ve collected a mixture one short-term weekly swing ideas as well as looking forward to the February expiration.
As written last week, Im in a bit of a conflict because the market really reacted weird after CPI data, volatility and the run up after Thursday’s big drop. And since earnings reports for most of the big names are right around the corner, I try to play it safe and will exit before earnings or select the longer 2/18 expiration to have some time.
Keep in mind that we have a short week with only 4 trading days from Tuesday to Friday!
I’m also showing you some extra Tradytics* Data for extra confirmation regarding the flow-site of the ideas.
As expected it was a mixed week. The given triggers were all hit, but it was difficult and I didn’t enter any trade, except $XLE 63c. The reason I didn’t enter the other ones, $QQQ, $IWM and $QCOM was that they dropped below with a gap and this invalidates my trigger.
Disclaimer: No advice, instead these are my ideas based on my knowledge analyzing the charts for possible swing trades based on #TheStrat. So please always do your own due diligence before entering a trade.
Since I got always questions about the colors in my charts and the setups:
If some of the broadening formation lines looking a bit curved, it is because I switched to logarithmic scale on the charts, but they are still correct.
As always lets have a look at $SPY and $QQQ for a rough prediction of what I think the market will do next. Or course it’s just my interpretation, so keep that in mind!
Mentioned above, I’m currently testing Tradytics for additional confirmation of my strikes. The link to Tradytics is a referral link, so if you find that service also helpful and want to try it for yourself, I would appreciate it, if you use that link to support me.
If you had asked me on Friday 1/14 around lunchtime I would have said the we maybe get an inside week next week. But that run into the close was pretty bullish. However SPY is still 2u and red on the month. If it triggers the daily 465.09 I expect a run up to 470/472 area next week. This would be a nice 3-2-2u possibility with targets at 479 if we get above 473.20.
$QQQ will have to gain some huge points to the upside before I call it bullish, but it was a nice run up last week, after testing and taking out last months lows. So it’s a 2d and red, but will look on the upside around 390 next week. Closed at 380.01 on Friday it’s now 10 points away for a possible 2-2 Reversal on the week to the upside. Since it’s a short week and first major earnings starting week after the next I’m not sure if there is enough time to take out 390.20 going up to the next target 400 area.
I usually target around 25-40% of profits on those swings and decide during the market hours if I leave a runner on a position or close the entire one.
Would love to get some feedback about this format here and if this helps you learn #TheStrat, as well as I’m open for any things that will help more.
I chose the 1/28 expiration because $BA has earning on 1/26 pre-market, so I likely will exit that position before if it triggered and runs in my direction to avoid the earnings gamble.
Current FTFC up and an inside day on Friday with a Momo hammer setup I look at the 2-1-2 Bullish Continuation above 226.20 and the weekly target of 233.94. If this target is hit by 1/21 I probably swing that into next week, but that depends on the market on Friday.
$FUTU has currently also FTFC up with an inside month, so this idea is to wait for the 2-2u Month to trigger above 49.20 with the next targets around 57.29 and maybe 64.56. That stock has currently 6 lower highs on the monthly chart and is currently green, so it looks like sellers are out and buyers stepped in again. We might see a reversal on the week, because it’s 2u on both week and daily chart before running up. Earnings are in March, so this is a ER safe-idea as well.
Currently in TFC conflict because month is red and still inside, $NIO got my attention because of a possible 2-2 Weekly Reversal above 31.86 and if it hits it’s next magnitude of 33.80 this would 33.80 we have FTFC up. On the daily we might see a nice 1-2-2 Bullish RevStrat above 31.32 with the target of the weekly trigger. But I wait for the weekly 31.86 to trigger before entering that swing.
The Tradytics flow for $NIO doesn’t look what my Strat-Analysis says above, some bullish and some bearish flow, so nothing to show from Tradytics-site here. But of course you can look up Tradytics NIO Options Dashboard for yourself and see for yourself.
FTFC is up, this trade is the only one I would trade through earnings (1/27 post-market) iof it triggers. Outside week last week and currently in a 2-2u in-force monthly with some range to the upside. Also a nice green 2d close on Friday. SO if $X triggeres the week up above 26.17 for a 3-2u Continuation I go in with plenty of time. I chose the 29c because of Tradytics data (see below).
Welcome to the first issue of my #SundaySwing ideas in 2022!
I wish you all a Happy New Year 2022!
As mentioned on Friday on Twitter already, the current short-term outlook to me is bearish in the tech sector, which I mainly focus on. So be prepared for some Put-ideas, more than usual.
The current market sentiment is pretty volatile to me, so instead of going with expiration into the February (2/18) expiration, which is what I had planned, I will post ideas for shorter swings with expiration still in January (1/21).
Next big tech earnings session is starting end of January into February, so the 1/21 expiration is another reason I don’t look at the 2/18 expiration yet.
Since the additional information on the ideas in the last issue in December with Tradytics* Data worked quite well, I will continue provide some extra information from that fantastic platform.
Bear mode!
It was a slight positive mix of triggers that worked great.
$ATVI & $UBER both triggered and already got ITM and hit the projected targets for me.
$ROKU did trigger the entry right in the week after my post, but failed the week after without making it to my first projected target.
$CLF triggered in the last week of December and hit all 3 projected targets last week.
Disclaimer: No advice, instead these are my ideas based on my knowledge analyzing the charts for possible swing trades based on #TheStrat. So please always do your own due diligence before entering a trade.
Since I got always questions about the colors in my charts and the setups:
If some of the broadening formation lines looking a bit curved, it is because I switched to logarithmic scale on the charts, but they are still correct.
As always lets have a look at $SPY and $QQQ for a rough prediction of what I think the market will do next. Or course it’s just my interpretation, so keep that in mind!
As mentioned above I’m currently testing Tradytics for additional confirmation of my strikes. The link to Tradytics is a referral link, so if you find that service also helpful and want to try it for yourself, I would appreciate it, if you use that link to support me.
I only see a slight chance of a reversal if we close on Monday or Tuesday at least in the 470-range. But more likely is a drop down, if you look at the monthly chart, 463.96 is the 50% Rule trigger to get a possible outside month. The target for this would be 448.92, which sounds a bit unbelievable, but the Rule is more often correct than fails.
I also painted a micro-tri on the 60min chart (bottom right), with a slight “hope” the we hit the bottom here and bounce back up.
QQQ is still an inside month, but to be honest, how high is the chance the we will not reach 377.47 and instead bounce back up. If we see a close above 385 next week I might switch to bull-mode again, but for now, this looks bearish and the next targets are down in the 350-360 area for me if we drop down through the weekly first broadening formation I’Ve drawn.
I have selected QQQ as one of my ideas this week, so have a look down below for possible targets.
I usually target around 25-40% of profits on those swings and decide during the market hours if I leave a runner on a position or close the entire one.
Would love to get some feedback about this format here and if this helps you learn #TheStrat, as well as I’m open for any things that will help more.
As mentioned above, $QQQ is new entry in my #SundaySwing ideas. So we will see how index ideas play out at the end.
A break of 378.04 would trigger a 2-2d Weekly Bearish Reversal with a target of 373.56. Also that number might sound familiar, because it’s another trigger of the 2-2d Monthly Bearish Reversal with a pessimistic target at 350.32. I picked one intermediate target at 366.99 which sounds more realistic to me currently.
Therefore the 370p or 365p for 1/21 would be my idea here.
Another index and look at this chart, every last candle is a shooter-type of candle with nearly no lower wick. As you might see on the Monthly, the 50% Rule trigger was already activated at 217.65 and now the target is an outside month at 208.76. So if $IWM triggers my entry below 215.82 next week a 3-2d with a target of 210.30 is the one I’m aiming for and after that the monthly 208.76. The extra 205.76 is the low of February 2021, to show in which regions we’re trading here.
I don’t need to mention that we have FTFC down, if you look at this chart.
Look at the chart below and tell me you see some bullish signals there? Shooter on the month, week and big red 2d on Friday. My entry would be the 3-2d on the weekly below 180.12 with a first target at 173.46. 171.21 is last months low and would trigger an outside month, where my next target would be 165.81. If you also look at the monthly chart, $QCOM is below the 50% Rule of 181.94 and therefore has a high chance to go outside month.
I can’t finish this issue with a bearish idea, so Energy is the strong sector currently and I think this will continue. So I picked $XLE index a another idea. The chart shows FTFC up and the next targets above 61.50 the trigger for the 2-2 Weekly Continuation are back from December 2019 62.44 and 63.65. I would like to see a daily reversal for an entry into that trade, so even if we trigger the 61.50 on Monday, I would eye on the daily closings and then enter when XLE reverses back into FTFC.
My selection of #SundaySwing ideas into January expiration time based on #TheStrat
This week I’m trying something additional and show some option flows for the selected contracts to document why I’ve chosen it and if a #TheStrat and Flow combo could be a thing aka #FlowTrades. I currently test this with Tradytics* as a service and we’ll see how this plays out.
Also this will probably the last release of the swing ideas for this year. Holidays are near and I need to take some time off and want to spend as much time as possible with the family. New #SundaySwing ideas will be back beginning of 2022.
Last week was rough and many stocks dipped down heavy, so none of the selections ($DLTR, $DIS, $MU, $PINS) triggered for an entry. But I’m optimistic here and see it as a win, because with other TA signals there might be an entry. The Strat clearly denied an entry because no trigger was hit and therefore I lost no money.
Disclaimer: No advice, instead these are my ideas based on my knowledge analyzing the charts for possible swing trades based on #TheStrat. So please always do your own due diligence before entering a trade.
Since I got always questions about the colors in my charts and the setups:
As always lets have a look at $SPY and $QQQ for a rough prediction of what I think the market will do next. Or course it’s just my interpretation, so keep that in mind!
As mentioned above I’m currently testing Tradytics for additional confirmation of my strikes. The link to Tradytics is a referral link, so if you find that service also helpful and want to try it for yourself, I would appreciate it, if you use that link to support me.
I would like to see some bullish signal and a close above 464.74 on Monday or Tuesday. If SPY can close above this I still see 471-473 as next target for next week. If we not close below 460 on Monday or Tuesday 454-area is my target on the bearish side.
Double inside week close. That is a rare thing on the QQQ. The last time it happened was in August 2019! However we closed inside and red and have FTFC down, like SPY. I would like to see a close above 390 on Monday or Tuesday for a bullish outlook and targets around 400 end of year. If QQQ dips down more with a close below 385 on Monday or Tuesday my targets on to the downside are 378/379.
As mentioned above and in my post of October results shown, I go at least 3-4 weeks (1/21 is currently my preferred one) out with expiration on options and not to far OTM if possible. I also trade on a small account and if an option is to expensive for my risk management, I simply don’t trade it. Because, profit is not guaranteed and everything can be lost on those options.
I usually target around 25-40% of profits on those swings and decide during the market hours if I leave a runner on a position or close the entire one.
Would love to get some feedback about this format here and if this helps you learn #TheStrat, as well as I’m open for any things that will help more.
The only stock this week that I selected and is a continuation 1-2-2u play on the week. Normally reversals are easier but ATVI looks strong and held great against the market with 5 green days in a row. FTFC is up and at the bottom of my broadening formation. Above 62.06 my targets are 64.09, 65.64, 68.43. The 1/21 65c is a great deal if ATVI triggers that weekly level.
Except the month that is still red $CLF it would turn green into FTFC up if we trigger the 1-2-2u Weekly RevStrat above 20.98 (21.00) with the first target 21.67 (FTFC up!), 22.25, 23.28. The contract for 1/21 22c is surprisingly cheap and has lots of OI.
Tradytics has a bearish outlook but Strat-wise I’m bullish. Also look at the OI by strike for 1/21. Way more calls open than puts.
The 3-2-2 Weekly Reversal is the strategy I’ve my eye on here. FTFC up and above 237.18 my target is 266.05 and 279.30 and maybe 285.63. I did not expect that the 300c goes ITM in 1/21, so I’m careful here. If I had the money I would play the 260c for 1/21 but that’s to expensive for me, that’s why I’ve my eyes on the 300c.
Bullish outlook on Tradytics as well, and confirms my above mention of the 300 strike that probably won’t go ITM, the 270c for 3/18 got lots of flow last week.
Another 1-2-2u Weekly RevStrat setup with FTFC up. Above 40.00 my targets are 41.25, 44.40 and 46.66. So the 45c seems doable if the market moves in the same direction. Also the 45c has lots of volume and OI from last week.
Another Sunday, another #SundaySwing ideas post! A bright green week, the bulls showed their muscles for the end of year rally.
Or will we struggle a bit this week because 12/17 it’s Quad-Witch-Week! So if you’re in weeklies from longer swings or think about trading some this week, be extra cautious!
Short recap what worked and what not from last week.
I hoped for a bullish signal on SPY and QQQ on Monday or Tuesday and boy what a signal! All bears defeated on Tuesday, they tried it on Thursday but failed. So bulls are back!
From my ideas $FDX has triggered and is light green, so let’s see how this works out. The 280c is pretty optimistic for now.
$Z triggered as well and had a good run, $WBA is the winner so far with nearly ITM and we have 6 weeks left. The only failed one so far is $CMCSA wich triggered on Monday and dropped down since then.
My only Put idea $PTON stayed strong until Thursday, then it lost support at 41.13 which was the entry signal for the 35p, they are up around 50% since trigger to Friday.
Disclaimer: No advice, instead these are my ideas based on my knowledge analyzing the charts for possible swing trades based on #TheStrat. So please always do your own due diligence before entering a trade.
Since I got always questions about the colors in my charts and the setups:
As always lets have a look at $SPY and $QQQ for a rough prediction of what I think the market will do next. Or course it’s just my interpretation, so keep that in mind!
Maybe the week of 12/17 is a rollercoaster because of Quad-Witching, but still bullish and the 473.54 from last month could be taken out this week already. We got a wonderful 3-2-2 Bullish Reversal on the weekly, month is 2d and green with a hammer setup, don’t like continuations here but see no reversal.
As $SPY bulls are back, especially AAPL and MSFT helped $QQQ to stay strong the whole week. The 2-1-2u Reversal on the weekly looks a bit weak because the inside candle is near the top of the 2d from last week. Eyeing on the 405.30 target, 398.28 is needed for FTFC up.
As mentioned above and in my post of October results shown, I go at least 3-4 weeks (1/21 is currently my preferred one) out with expiration on options and not to far OTM if possible. I also trade on a small account and if an option is to expensive for my risk management, I simply don’t trade it. Because, profit is not guaranteed and everything can be lost on those options.
I usually target around 25-40% of profits on those swings and decide during the market hours if I leave a runner on a position or close the entire one.
Would love to get some feedback about this format here and if this helps you learn #TheStrat, as well as I’m open for any things that will help more.
One of my favorites since a few months, don’t know why but it worked everytime I selected $DLTR for a swing. Of course there is no guarantee here and the market has to move in the same direction. So what we have here?
FTFC is up, red inside week, green inside week, so a 2-1-1-2 double inside week hoping for a breakout in the direction of FTFC. Last week was the small correction with the red inside week, with momentum the magnitude is 149.37 which is current ATH. So I’m extra cautious because of possible exhaustion risk.
The Mouse, at first sight it was an instant add to my SundaySwing list, thought twice removed it, but now added it back. It i a continuation that’s why I removed it, but adding it back because it looks strong to me and the contract I’m eyeing on has 6 weeks time and is an early entry for a possible 2-2 monthly reversal. FTFC is up if Monday is green as well.
So the best would be to wait for January and see where $DIS is going and if it triggers the 2-2u. But since it’s looking strong I’m trying to get in earlier on the weekly continuation 2u-2u after the red outside day on Friday.
Targets are 160.72 and since there was the big drop down there is no weekly target in between this and 179.25.
So I did something unusual and placed a Fib on the weekly chart. (Keep in mind that I’m not an experienced Fib guy!!) The targets therefore are 167.09 and 175.57 before we hit the monthly magnitude of 179.25.
$MU is one of the most mentioned tickers on my SwingIdeas series and since we have a nice possible 3-2-2 Weekly Reversal setup it’s on my list again.
If the 87.04 triggers next week $MU also has FTFC up again and might expand the broadening formation up above ~$90.00 with target of 93.10 and 96.96. Therefore the 95c is my contract of choice here. (The 100c from a from two weeks ago is still possible as well)
The last idea for this issue is a bit risky but has potential. $PINS has gone down heavy the last few months but always lined up to my previously drawn Broadening Formation. Since it was the first green week 2d as well since 5 weeks I’m eyeing on a possible reversal into January here. The 2-2 Bullish Reversal on the Week is my entry here above 41.23, targeting 43.24, 44.66 and 49.09. So the 45c is not to far OTM.
Here are some more ideas from the last issues I posted and are still valid.
Oh what a week we had on the stock market. Huge volatility, perfect for trading both sides. However, such a volatility and that drop on Friday also means that long-term investments took a hit here. See below what my thoughts are for the next couple days.
Update 12/5: Added $PTON for a possible Put swing below
As mentioned above, regarding my SundaySwing ideas it was not a great week. From the setups I had chosen, $MU and $TWTR hit the triggerd to get in on Monday. $TWTR failed hard and I exited with a small loss right at the reversal. For $MU my order at the trigger didn’t get a fill, so got a bit lucky here.
Disclaimer: No advice, instead these are my ideas based on my knowledge analyzing the charts for possible swing trades based on #TheStrat. So please always do your own due diligence before entering a trade.
Since I got always questions about the colors in my charts and the setups:
As always lets have a look at $SPY and $QQQ for a rough prediction of what I think the market will do next. Or course it’s just my interpretation, so keep that in mind!
That 4-hour chart is the only little hope I have here, that we revert with a 3-2-2u above 453.67 with target of 460.30 which would lead to a 3-2u on the Daily. With momentum above 466.56 a 3-2-2u Weekly would be a wonderful setup up to 473.54.
As long as we can’t hold around 450, I remain bearish and 443.27 could be visited here.
Again, the 4-hour chart give me a little bit of hope for that 3-2-2u Reversal above 383.86 with a target up to 392.34. The weekly 2d candle is huge and I expect a Inside bar if we reverse bullish, a 3-2-2d weekly would mean next target is 373.56. If we go below 368.03 the October Outside will get hit at dangerous lavel of Saras 50% Rule. Won’t think about that for now and will provide an update if we ge near that level, I hope not!
As mentioned above and in my post of October results shown, I go at least 3-4 weeks (1/21 is currently my preferred one) out with expiration on options and not to far OTM if possible. I also trade on a small account and if an option is to expensive for my risk management, I simply don’t trade it. Because, profit is not guaranteed and everything can be lost on those options.
I usually target around 25-40% of profits on those swings and decide during the market hours if I leave a runner on a position or close the entire one.
Would love to get some feedback about this format here and if this helps you learn #TheStrat, as well as I’m open for any things that will help more.
FTFC is bright green! 2-2 Bullish Reversal on the weekly is my setup here above 241.59, which might helps that little gap on the Daily up to 243-area and with momentum that weekly target of 251.10 is reachable. Since I look for longer plays here the 1/21 contracts are may target. Also above 242.61 that would a possible outside month above 255.30 with next target at 268.98. A bit on the higher premium site, so a 300c would be a valid option, but don’t expect this to go ITM!
Note: $FDX has earnings report on 12/16!
Another FTFC up setup. Nice green candle last week, not my favorite setup, but if we trade above 60.54 a 2-2 Continuation up to 65.08 and 68.74 is possible. We’re still inside month green but way down at the bottom of Novembers 2d bar. A 3-2-2u monthly reversal is a bit to bullish currently, so I expect an inside month if $Z stays green. The 70 Calls can be a valid target, everything else above would be nice but have no targets there for me from the last couple of months. (That 76.36 would lead to a possible gap fill, up to 84 area, which I honestly don’t expect so fast)
In times like these I try to stay with the power of FTFC, so therefore $WBA is the next green one. A possible 2-2u Bullish Reversal on the weekly above 46.58 would be my entry trigger. Next targets are 48.08 and 49.91 for the January expiration. The 48.08 is also above 50% from last months 2d candle (47.70), so a possible outside bar in December. So 50.98 is doable then. If you have the money I would suggest a 45c or 47.50c as a possible contract as well.
You might expected that, FTFC is up here as well! A possible 2-2u Weekly Reversal above 52.25 is my setup for the 55c here. 52.20 is the 50% marker from last months inside bar, since it’s currently a 2d, a possible outside bar above 54.59 is possible. Intermediate target is 53.79. Bottom of my broadening formation as well, so this looks bullish with possible(!) targets around 60-65 in the next couple of months.
The 50c would also be an option if premiums around $3-4 is not a problem for you.
After looking on the Qtr and Yearly chart for $PTON and some asked for possible Bearish swings as well. PTON is a great candidate for this. If you think that it found it’s bottom, look at the Yearly chart with Saras #SSS50PercentRule in mind. Target is 17.70 for this to go outside the full year. That looks brutal and therefore the 35p are at a great risk/reward ratio, if this is to expensive go with the 30p.
Entry would be the 2-2d continuation on the month below 41.13.
Another #SundaySwing on 11/28 post, after the short week with the heavy dip on BlackFriday, lets see which opportunities I found for a possible swing.
Last week was rough and none of the 3 setups I charted triggered. This happens, but the good thing about TheStrat is, that if it not triggers, we don’t trade it. Easy Peasy!
Disclaimer: No advice, instead these are my ideas based on my knowledge analyzing the charts for possible swing trades based on #TheStrat. So please always do your own due diligence before entering a trade.
Since I got some DMs about the colors in my charts and the setups:
As always lets have a look at $SPY and $QQQ for a rough prediction of what I think the market will do next. Or course it’s just my interpretation, so keep that in mind!
I was to bullish on Wednesday, after a rejection of higher highs on Monday, I even predicted a red week down to 466.23 of last weeks low on Monday and gave a 465p 11/26 $SPY trade idea in the Discord. A huge dip like it happened on Friday was not expected, but we have a new Broadening Formation on the week, because we took out all the lows back to week of November 1st.
If $SPY on Monday starts bullish (what I expect currently), we will go up to the top of the Broadening Formation around 475.
As mentioned above and in my post of October results shown, I go at least 3-4 weeks (01/22 is currently my preferred one) out with expiration on options and not to far OTM if possible. I also trade on a small account and if an option is to expensive for my risk management, I simply don’t trade it. Because, profit is not guaranteed and everything can be lost on those options.
Also keep in mind that we start a new month this week, so watch out for new monthly candles this or next week.
I usually target around 25-40% of profits on those swings and decide during the market hours if I leave a runner on a position or close the entire one.
Would love to get some feedback about this format here and if this helps you learn #TheStrat, as well as I’m open for any things that will help more.
Nice run up last week and even on the market dip on Friday $MU closed strong. Expecting a run up to previous ATH around 96.96 back in April.
Getting the 01/22 100c when the possible 2-2u Bullish Continuiation triggers above 87.71 next week and also watching closely the monthly chart, currently 2u in-force for a continuation.
Looking at the weekly chart, $TWTR has a potential PMG weekly setup after two green days in a row on Friday and Wednesday last week. So if it triggers the 48.55 from last weeks high for a possible 2-2u Bullish Reversal I’m watching the 01/22 55c with targets at 53.15, 54.93 and 60.16.
Slow mover, so not expecting huge moves, but the 50c has lots of volume for 01/22 expiration and isn’t that far away. Outside week and if 47.98 triggers the 3-2u, than 48.42 is not far away for a monthly 2u-2u Bullish continuation as well into FTFC up.
Also two strong days last week, eyeing for a possible 1-2-2 weekly RevStrat above 78.44 with targets at 85.44, 91.55 and maybe 99.99. Everything above with that much time is a bonus and will watch if 100 breaks to the upside. Because than a possible PMG up on the monthly could trigger and turns $BYND into FTFC up, but this is not happening soon.
Sunday 11/21, another #SundaySwing post into December with the ideas the developed during the last week.
We also have a short week, markets are closed on Thursday, but open on Friday after Thanksgiving, so if you’re in weeklies pay attention!
First, a quick update. I try to also record my #SundaySwing ideas as a video and post it on Youtube on Sunday evening for your viewing pleasure. Overall I got great feedback and it seems like, you like it. So I will try to continue with this.
Disclaimer: No advice, instead these are my ideas based on my knowledge analyzing the charts for possible swing trades based on #TheStrat. So please always do your own due diligence before entering a trade.
Since I got some DMs about the colors in my charts and the setups:
As always lets have a look at $SPY and $QQQ for a rough prediction of what I think the market will do next. Or course it’s just my interpretation and I was wrong on the bearish outlook beginning of November, but it helps me write this down here for later reviews.
Remember we are at ATH, so exhaustion risk is a heavy player here and can reverse the trend up.
As mentioned above and in my post of October results shown, I go at least 3-4 weeks (12/17 is currently my preferred one) out with expiration on options and not to far OTM if possible. I also trade on a small account and if an option is to expensive for my risk management, I simply don’t trade it. Because, profit is not guaranteed and everything can be lost on those options.
I usually target around 25-40% of profits on those swings and decide during the market hours if I leave a runner on a position or close the entire one.
Would love to get some feedback about this format here and if this helps you learn #TheStrat, as well as I’m open for any things that will help more.
Only 3 tickers this week, there are of course more, but most of my favorites trading at or near ATH and there is always exhaustion risk and also no targets that can be taken out, so that makes it difficult to aim. Also be sure to look at the bottom of this post to see my previuos #SundaySwing ideas which some of them are still valid and can trigger.
Not sure how $UBER will open on Monday after news from the weekend, but still looks ready for some movement after being nearly flat the last 2months.
I’m eyeing for a 3-1-2 Bullish Reversal W after two inside weeks, with a slightly bearish structure. Break of 46.66 and first target 47.65 would maybe continue the movement into December above 48.88 for a 2-2 Bullish Reversal M with my target at 52.03.
Semi constructors were strong thanks to AMD and TXN held up strong even after AMAT ER miss last week. No ER for TXN this year, so the 12/17 200c is my choice if we break a rare triple inside week setup above 195.25. FTFC is already bright green, however Month is still inside and $TXN needs 202.26 to break this, with only one week in November left. So 12/17 as well, to getting into a possible 3-1-2u M.
The beauty of #TheStrat is, that I don’t know anything about a company, like $BEKE. I look at the chart and see an inside week and FTFC up. A break of 25.98 would be a 2-2u Bullish Continuation M, while I don’t like continuation plays a lot this one looks tempting to me and the 29.66 would be the next target if 25.98 is taken. However, after that 1st target, the next is 38.19 which seems unlikely to me. A 1/22 30c would also by a choice if the 25.98 isn’t taken next week and in first week of December to buy some more time.
Please also have a look at my previous #SundaySwing ideas which still have some setups (as time of this writing) for a possible entry for me.