Another Sunday, another #SundaySwing ideas post! A bright green week, the bulls showed their muscles for the end of year rally.
Or will we struggle a bit this week because 12/17 it’s Quad-Witch-Week! So if you’re in weeklies from longer swings or think about trading some this week, be extra cautious!
TLDR;
- $DLTR 1/21 150c > 143.80
- $DIS 1/21 170c > 154.66
- $MU 1/21 95c > 87.04
- $PINS 1/21 45c > 41.23
Recap of 12/6 SundaySwing
Short recap what worked and what not from last week.
I hoped for a bullish signal on SPY and QQQ on Monday or Tuesday and boy what a signal! All bears defeated on Tuesday, they tried it on Thursday but failed. So bulls are back!
From my ideas $FDX has triggered and is light green, so let’s see how this works out. The 280c is pretty optimistic for now.
$Z triggered as well and had a good run, $WBA is the winner so far with nearly ITM and we have 6 weeks left. The only failed one so far is $CMCSA wich triggered on Monday and dropped down since then.
My only Put idea $PTON stayed strong until Thursday, then it lost support at 41.13 which was the entry signal for the 35p, they are up around 50% since trigger to Friday.
Disclaimer: No advice, instead these are my ideas based on my knowledge analyzing the charts for possible swing trades based on #TheStrat. So please always do your own due diligence before entering a trade.
Chart setups
Since I got always questions about the colors in my charts and the setups:
- I always chart in multiple time frames Monthly, Weekly, Daily, and 4-hour or 60min
- Purple lines last months high&low
- Orange lines last weeks high&low
- Blueish lines last day high&low
- Green lines are my targets
- Sometimes white and yellow for intermediate targets or 50% rule setups
- The brownish-boxes on the Daily and 4-hour chart you see sometimes show a gap this isn’t filled yet.
Outlook
As always lets have a look at $SPY and $QQQ for a rough prediction of what I think the market will do next. Or course it’s just my interpretation, so keep that in mind!
SPY
Maybe the week of 12/17 is a rollercoaster because of Quad-Witching, but still bullish and the 473.54 from last month could be taken out this week already. We got a wonderful 3-2-2 Bullish Reversal on the weekly, month is 2d and green with a hammer setup, don’t like continuations here but see no reversal.
QQQ
As $SPY bulls are back, especially AAPL and MSFT helped $QQQ to stay strong the whole week. The 2-1-2u Reversal on the weekly looks a bit weak because the inside candle is near the top of the 2d from last week. Eyeing on the 405.30 target, 398.28 is needed for FTFC up.
Options and Expiration
As mentioned above and in my post of October results shown, I go at least 3-4 weeks (1/21 is currently my preferred one) out with expiration on options and not to far OTM if possible. I also trade on a small account and if an option is to expensive for my risk management, I simply don’t trade it. Because, profit is not guaranteed and everything can be lost on those options.
Profits and Stops
I usually target around 25-40% of profits on those swings and decide during the market hours if I leave a runner on a position or close the entire one.
Swing ideas
Would love to get some feedback about this format here and if this helps you learn #TheStrat, as well as I’m open for any things that will help more. To view the charts in full detail, click to open them in a new browser window
$DLTR 1/21 150c > 143.80
One of my favorites since a few months, don’t know why but it worked everytime I selected $DLTR for a swing. Of course there is no guarantee here and the market has to move in the same direction. So what we have here?
FTFC is up, red inside week, green inside week, so a 2-1-1-2 double inside week hoping for a breakout in the direction of FTFC. Last week was the small correction with the red inside week, with momentum the magnitude is 149.37 which is current ATH. So I’m extra cautious because of possible exhaustion risk.
$DIS 1/21 170c > 154.66
The Mouse, at first sight it was an instant add to my SundaySwing list, thought twice removed it, but now added it back. It i a continuation that’s why I removed it, but adding it back because it looks strong to me and the contract I’m eyeing on has 6 weeks time and is an early entry for a possible 2-2 monthly reversal. FTFC is up if Monday is green as well.
So the best would be to wait for January and see where $DIS is going and if it triggers the 2-2u. But since it’s looking strong I’m trying to get in earlier on the weekly continuation 2u-2u after the red outside day on Friday.
Targets are 160.72 and since there was the big drop down there is no weekly target in between this and 179.25.
So I did something unusual and placed a Fib on the weekly chart. (Keep in mind that I’m not an experienced Fib guy!!) The targets therefore are 167.09 and 175.57 before we hit the monthly magnitude of 179.25.
$MU 1/21 95c > 87.04
$MU is one of the most mentioned tickers on my SwingIdeas series and since we have a nice possible 3-2-2 Weekly Reversal setup it’s on my list again.
If the 87.04 triggers next week $MU also has FTFC up again and might expand the broadening formation up above ~$90.00 with target of 93.10 and 96.96. Therefore the 95c is my contract of choice here. (The 100c from a from two weeks ago is still possible as well)
$PINS 1/21 45c > 41.23
The last idea for this issue is a bit risky but has potential. $PINS has gone down heavy the last few months but always lined up to my previously drawn Broadening Formation. Since it was the first green week 2d as well since 5 weeks I’m eyeing on a possible reversal into January here. The 2-2 Bullish Reversal on the Week is my entry here above 41.23, targeting 43.24, 44.66 and 49.09. So the 45c is not to far OTM.
Previous SundaySwing ideas
Here are some more ideas from the last issues I posted and are still valid.