Since I have some outside DIY projects running on my house and weather gets better, my free time is shifting into that projects and therefore fewer time on the weekend for my trading hobby.
Enjoy reading this – shorter than usual – weeks issue!
As you might know, I love to trade and scan and train my eyes for possible setups, so I had to spend some extra-time on my scanners and charts to bring this weeks #SundaySwing issue to you.
Please be aware that we have Quad-Witch coming up, 3/18 expiration. So everything can happen, also all the other news stuff currently happening in the world will keep the volatility pretty high, so take my ideas with a grain of salt. As I tweeted a few weeks ago, you have to adapt quickly and change the direction if it’s necessary.
As mentioned above, because if time, I only selected 2 tickers for this weeks issue, there are some other good setups, like $UPST, $ETSY or $OXY. But premiums are pretty high on the 4/14 expiration, so I have an eye on these additional tickers for eventually weekly expiration trades if they hit some of my triggers.
Only 2 tickers this week, because of time and lag of good “cheap” contracts for the April expiration.
- $AAL 5/20 18c > 14.75
- $TGT 4/14 190p < 206.70
The 5/20 expiration on $AAL is not a typo ;-)
Recap of 3/6 SundaySwing
Last weeks #SundaySwing ideas:
- $PEP 170c didn’t trigger
- $LCID 20p didn’t trigger
- $BYND 40p - triggered & printed still ITM 🌶
- $PINS 23p - triggered & printed, might get ITM again 🌶
Disclaimer: Not advice, instead these are my ideas based on my knowledge analyzing the charts for possible swing trades based on #TheStrat. So please always do your own due diligence before entering a trade.
Since I got always questions about the colors in my charts and the setups:
- I always chart in multiple time frames Monthly, Weekly, Daily, and 4-hour or 60min
- Purple lines last months high&low
- Orange lines last weeks high&low
- Blueish lines last day high&low
- Green lines are my targets
- Sometimes white and yellow for intermediate targets or 50% rule setups
- The brownish-boxes on the Daily and 4-hour chart you see sometimes show a gap that hasn’t filled yet.
If some of the broadening formation lines looking a bit curved, it is because I switched to logarithmic scale on the charts, but they are still correct.
As always lets have a look at $SPY and $QQQ for a rough prediction of what I think the market will do next. Or course it’s just my interpretation, so keep that in mind!
Nice outside day on Friday into the close, as mentioned last week, I stick my target. $SPY will visit the 400-area soon. The magnitude currently is 410.64 from 3 weeks ago, which we didn’t reached last week.
I also tweeted on Friday that $SPY triggered the 50% rule (#SSS50PercentRule) again for the year. So of course it won’t instantly get down to that levels but the probability is there.
$QQQ aalso outside day on Friday right into the close, also didn’t hit its weekly magnitude of 318.26, that’s my next target I have an eye on.
Profits and Stops
I usually target around 25-40% of profits on those swings and decide during the market hours if I leave a runner on a position or close the entire one.
To view the charts in full detail, click to open them in a new browser window.
$AAL 5/20 18c > 14.75
I know what you’re thinking… FTFC to the downside, big red on the month, wtf… Let me explain.
$AAL hit it’s monthly magnitude, dropped deeper and instantly bounced back up from 12.44. Looking to a bounce of a monthly broadening formation back up, since it’s influenced – like all travel stocks – from re-openings and holiday season is just starting, I think now is a great time to go long. I selected a pretty cheap contract with plenty of time that even covers April earnings reports.
Idea here is, to get long above the 2d-2u Bullish Reversal weekly, the weekly target would be 17.46, but first it would trigger 17.07 for month runing green again, which would also switch FTFC completely. I don’t expect this to be happen in one week, that’s why I selected a far out expiration to play this out. If this won’t happen in March, the 17.07 would also trigger a pretty sweet 1-2d-2u Bullish RevStrat Month with target around 19.11.
And as always, if it doesn’t trigger, we don’t trade it.
$TGT 4/14 190p < 206.70
FTFC to the downside, month is 2u but red with a good potential of going outside month. If $TGT triggers next weeks 2u-1-2d Bearish Reversal Weekly below 206.70 the next target is 195.85, which is far away, but in between the trigger and that target is 203.26, which is the 50% Rule trigger for a possible outside month down to 184.00.
With some time on these contracts, even it the outside month is not finished in March, this is setting up a possible 2u-2d Bearish Reversal Month for April with that target.
I don’t expect that contract go ITM, but a drop to around 200 by end of March would double the premium in these contracts.
Spread is a bit wide, so this will not be a MKT order for my at trigger.
With that — thanks for reading!
Have a nice green successful week!