Another green week in the books for the market. After the last couple of red weeks, the market ran back above some important levels with no stops in sight.
I wrote last week, that I wasn’t sure if the week was green becaue of OPEX or not, but I would say OPEX didn’t play a role at all, so I remain bullish, but I expect a pullback before it continues higher.
After this rally on almost all of my stocks last week, I seriously having trouble finding great setups for bullish trades that are not continuations and instead reversed last week and are still insight month or are 2u and green.
Last week with 5 ideas I’m back with a smaller list as I do not feel confident trading continuations in highs as you know I like the reversal trades much more.
TLDR;
As mentioned above, only calls this week on my list. I will not trade against the market and go with the money. So currently bullish until some cool-down.
- $ORCL 5/20 87.5c > 83.78
- $PYPL 4/14 125c > 119.35
- $LUV 4/14 45c > 44.72
- $IWM 5/20 220c > 209.05
A mixed bag of 4/14 and 5/20 expirations this week, selecting 5/20 for the others ideas with a slightly more OTM contract is also a good option to buy some extra time for the other ideas.
Recap of 3/20 SundaySwing
Last weeks #SundaySwing ideas:
- $CLX 4/14 140c - triggered, stopped out gave a re-trigger, no profit
- $BLNK 4/14 30c - triggered and hit my first target 27.79, now reversed
- $PLUG 4/14 30c - triggered and nearly hit both of my targets, might hit it again, 2 weeks left
- $OXY 4/14 65c - triggered and missed the 2nd target by .18. no back at trigger level
- $AAPL 4/14 170c - triggered, it’s AAPL, hit all my projected targets and some more. Trade of the week for sure!
Still hot:
- $AAL 5/20 18c - triggered, hit 1st targets still plenty of time left.
Disclaimer: Not advice, instead these are my ideas based on my knowledge analyzing the charts for possible swing trades based on #TheStrat. So please always do your own due diligence before entering a trade.
Chart setups
Since I keep getting questions about the colors in my charts and setups:
- I always chart in multiple time frames Monthly, Weekly, Daily, and 4-hour or 60min
- Purple lines last months high&low
- Orange lines last weeks high&low
- Blueish lines last day high&low
- Green lines are my targets
- Sometimes white and yellow for intermediate targets or 50% rule setups
- The brownish-boxes on the Daily and 4-hour chart you see sometimes show a gap that hasn’t filled yet.
If some of the broadening formation lines looking a bit curved, it’s because I changed the charts to a logarithmic scale, but they are still accurate.
Outlook
As always, lets take a look at $SPY and $QQQ for a rough prediction of what I think the market will do next. Or course, it’s just my interpretation, so keep that in mind!
$SPY
Two bright green weeks closed at the top, seems like the bulls still want more upside and bears have to fight hard and lost for now. If the rally continues we might see a 3-2d-2u on the monthly chart after staying inside month the whole March.
FTFC is up and to the upside there can only be one target, 458.12 for the 3-2d-2u Month trigger. If not in March, and market runs higher we might see a possible 2d-1-2u Bullish Reversal Month early in April.
There is no reason to trade bearish currently on the shorter swings, everything looks bullish for now.
The only pivot point for the bears would be the Daily top of Broadening Formation we’re nearing and maybe see a reversal here. Higher time frame Broadening Formations have way more room for trading higher.
$QQQ
When $SPY runs, $QQQ does the same, so the only small difference is, that $QQQ is a 2d green month and is already way above the Monthly 50% Rule trigger at 344.18. To get an outside month the target is 370.10 and this is possible, looking at the last couple of weeks.
Profits and Stops
I usually target around 25-40% of profits on those swings and decide during the market hours if I leave a runner on a position or close the entire one.
To view the charts in full detail, click to open them in a new browser window.
$ORCL 5/20 87.5c > 83.78
Bounce from the bottom of a weekly broadening formation a few weeks ago and is running higher since then. My idea is the trigger above 83.78 for a possible 2d-2u Bullish Reversal March or if in April, a 2d-1-2u Reversal. The target on the month is 89.58, to give a bit more time I go out to the May expiration.
Intermediate targets from the weekly are 86.97 which will bring the 87.5c nearly ITM already.
Week would be a continuation entry if $ORCL triggers next week, so I would like to see a small reversal or inside week to get a good entry.
$PYPL 4/14 125c > 119.35
Also at the bottom of a broadening formation and we might saw the bottom for now. Month is 2d but turned green, that huge red February candle is a long-term problem. Since $PYPL has earnings report on 5/4 I stick to the 4/14 expiration and eyeing on a possible 2u-1-2u Continuation above 119.35.
Nex targets are short term from the Daily chart, 120.89, 125.28 and then the weekly 129.42 but we might not see this in the 4/14 expiration, so keep that in mind.
Also after the rally of the market last week, $PYPL was red on the week, inside but has a good bit to go before it triggers, if at all.
$LUV 4/14 45c > 44.72
44.72 as a trigger, looks like a strict continuation idea, but let me explain.
The idea on $LUV is on the monthly chart. 44.47 would trigger the 50 Rule Outside month. Since the month is nearly over and $LUV has earnings on 4/18 I stick to the shorter expiration nearly ITM and expecting some momentum from the weekly chart above 44.72 to run higher.
Target I would like to see in such a short time is 46.25 which would bring the 45c ITM. We have re-opening and early holiday season so it may run more, maybe we see 47.74 as possible target as well. But for now I stick to the pre-earnings expiration on this idea.
$IWM 5/20 220c > 209.05
Good old $IWM is back on my list, since I’m bullish for now, I go a bit out in expiration and also OTM with this strike. The idea is the break of the inside month up above 209.05 for the possible 3-2d-2u Bullish Reversal in March, or if in April the 2d-2u Reversal. Both have the same triggers and also the same targets. I would like to see 212.44 short-term and 219.38 which is nearly ITM for my idea mid-term. I do not expect the huge Outside January to break above in that “short amount” of time for an ETF like $IWM.
As always, no trigger no trade and stick to your stops, we might see a reversal or a larger pullback before we run higher.
With that — thanks for reading!
Have a nice green successful week!