Oh what a week we had on the stock market. Huge volatility, perfect for trading both sides. However, such a volatility and that drop on Friday also means that long-term investments took a hit here. See below what my thoughts are for the next couple days.
Update 12/5: Added $PTON for a possible Put swing below
Recap of 11/28 SundaySwing
As mentioned above, regarding my SundaySwing ideas it was not a great week. From the setups I had chosen, $MU and $TWTR hit the triggerd to get in on Monday. $TWTR failed hard and I exited with a small loss right at the reversal. For $MU my order at the trigger didn’t get a fill, so got a bit lucky here.
Disclaimer: No advice, instead these are my ideas based on my knowledge analyzing the charts for possible swing trades based on #TheStrat. So please always do your own due diligence before entering a trade.
Chart setups
Since I got always questions about the colors in my charts and the setups:
- I always chart in multiple time frames Monthly, Weekly, Daily, and 4-hour or 60min
- Purple lines last months high&low
- Orange lines last weeks high&low
- Blueish lines last day high&low
- Green lines are my targets
- Sometimes white and yellow for intermediate targets or 50% rule setups
- The brownish-boxes on the Daily and 4-hour chart you see sometimes show a gap this isn’t filled yet.
Outlook
As always lets have a look at $SPY and $QQQ for a rough prediction of what I think the market will do next. Or course it’s just my interpretation, so keep that in mind!
SPY
That 4-hour chart is the only little hope I have here, that we revert with a 3-2-2u above 453.67 with target of 460.30 which would lead to a 3-2u on the Daily. With momentum above 466.56 a 3-2-2u Weekly would be a wonderful setup up to 473.54.
As long as we can’t hold around 450, I remain bearish and 443.27 could be visited here.
QQQ
Again, the 4-hour chart give me a little bit of hope for that 3-2-2u Reversal above 383.86 with a target up to 392.34. The weekly 2d candle is huge and I expect a Inside bar if we reverse bullish, a 3-2-2d weekly would mean next target is 373.56. If we go below 368.03 the October Outside will get hit at dangerous lavel of Saras 50% Rule. Won’t think about that for now and will provide an update if we ge near that level, I hope not!
Options and Expiration
As mentioned above and in my post of October results shown, I go at least 3-4 weeks (1/21 is currently my preferred one) out with expiration on options and not to far OTM if possible. I also trade on a small account and if an option is to expensive for my risk management, I simply don’t trade it. Because, profit is not guaranteed and everything can be lost on those options.
Profits and Stops
I usually target around 25-40% of profits on those swings and decide during the market hours if I leave a runner on a position or close the entire one.
Swing ideas
Would love to get some feedback about this format here and if this helps you learn #TheStrat, as well as I’m open for any things that will help more. To view the charts in full detail, click to open them in a new browser window
$FDX 1/21 280c > 241.59
FTFC is bright green! 2-2 Bullish Reversal on the weekly is my setup here above 241.59, which might helps that little gap on the Daily up to 243-area and with momentum that weekly target of 251.10 is reachable. Since I look for longer plays here the 1/21 contracts are may target. Also above 242.61 that would a possible outside month above 255.30 with next target at 268.98. A bit on the higher premium site, so a 300c would be a valid option, but don’t expect this to go ITM!
Note: $FDX has earnings report on 12/16!
$Z 1/21 70c > 60.54
Another FTFC up setup. Nice green candle last week, not my favorite setup, but if we trade above 60.54 a 2-2 Continuation up to 65.08 and 68.74 is possible. We’re still inside month green but way down at the bottom of Novembers 2d bar. A 3-2-2u monthly reversal is a bit to bullish currently, so I expect an inside month if $Z stays green. The 70 Calls can be a valid target, everything else above would be nice but have no targets there for me from the last couple of months. (That 76.36 would lead to a possible gap fill, up to 84 area, which I honestly don’t expect so fast)
$WBA 1/21 50c > 46.58
In times like these I try to stay with the power of FTFC, so therefore $WBA is the next green one. A possible 2-2u Bullish Reversal on the weekly above 46.58 would be my entry trigger. Next targets are 48.08 and 49.91 for the January expiration. The 48.08 is also above 50% from last months 2d candle (47.70), so a possible outside bar in December. So 50.98 is doable then. If you have the money I would suggest a 45c or 47.50c as a possible contract as well.
$CMCSA 1/21 55c > 52.25
You might expected that, FTFC is up here as well! A possible 2-2u Weekly Reversal above 52.25 is my setup for the 55c here. 52.20 is the 50% marker from last months inside bar, since it’s currently a 2d, a possible outside bar above 54.59 is possible. Intermediate target is 53.79. Bottom of my broadening formation as well, so this looks bullish with possible(!) targets around 60-65 in the next couple of months.
The 50c would also be an option if premiums around $3-4 is not a problem for you.
$PTON 1/21 35p < 41.13
After looking on the Qtr and Yearly chart for $PTON and some asked for possible Bearish swings as well. PTON is a great candidate for this. If you think that it found it’s bottom, look at the Yearly chart with Saras #SSS50PercentRule in mind. Target is 17.70 for this to go outside the full year. That looks brutal and therefore the 35p are at a great risk/reward ratio, if this is to expensive go with the 30p.
Entry would be the 2-2d continuation on the month below 41.13.
