Sunday 11/14, so about time for another #SundaySwing post with my ideas into next few weeks.
I’m getting more and more in love with longer running contracts when following my entries according to #TheStrat. The last few weeks really showed a great success rate with contracts with 3-4 weeks of expiration. Compared with the daily setups the work is nearly the same for searching, analyzing and painting the different time frames and setting up my entry triggers.
Of course there is not every trade a success, because that’s the market but if something isn’t going in my direction after entry I’ve usually more time to exit with a smaller loss compared to weekly contracts.
Disclaimer: No advice, instead these are my ideas based on my knowledge analyzing the charts for possible swing trades based on #TheStrat. So please always do your own due diligence before entering a trade.
Since I got some DMs about the colors in my charts and the setups:
- I always chart in multiple time frames Monthly, Weekly, Daily, and 4-hour or 60min
- Purple lines last months high&low
- Orange lines last weeks high&low
- Blueish lines last day high&low
- Green lines are my targets
- Sometimes white and yellow for intermediate targets or 50% rule setups
As always lets have a look at $SPY and $QQQ for a rough prediction of what I think the market will do next. Or course it’s just my interpretation and I was wrong on the bearish outlook beginning of November, but it helps me write this down here for later reviews.
Options and Expiration
As mentioned above and in my post of October results shown, I go at least 3-4 weeks (12/17 is currently my preferred one) out with expiration on options and not to far OTM if possible. I also trade on a small account and if an option is to expensive for my risk management, I simply don’t trade it. Because, profit is not guaranteed and everything can be lost on those options.
Profits and Stops
I usually target around 25-40% of profits on those swings and decide during the market hours if I leave a runner on a position or close the entire one.
Would love to get some feedback about this new “format” and if this helps educate #TheStrat, as well as I’m open for any things that will help more. To view the charts in full detail, open them in a new browser window
$AAPL 12/17 160c > 153.16
Again on my swing list since I like the stock and the company 😇 so slightly biased but AAPL is ready for a new ATH.
If $AAPL triggers above 153.16 for a 1-2-2 Bullish RevStrat which also would trigger a 2-2 Bullish Reversal on the month my next target is previous ATH at 157.26. So if the market is strong the next few weeks I’m catching at the 160c contracts if it triggers.
$CHKP 12/17 125c > 118.99
Rarely trading this stock but seeing a possible 2-1-2 Bullish Reversal on the weekly above 118.99 as an entry. However still an inside month Doji candle so CHKP needs 124.36 for a 2-2 Bullish Reversal on the month which is quite a bit away. But with the 12/17 expiration there is some time.
$CHWY 12/3 85c > 77.44
Strong close in last week with an outside day and has FTFC up. So expecting some momentum for a continuation since the 2-2 Bullish Reversal on the month is in force. Above 77.44 triggers the 2-2 Bullish Reversal on the month. Since $CHWY reports earnings on 12/7, I aim for a 12/3 expiration or maybe roll into the 12/17 depending how the stock develops in the next 1-2 weeks. Current targets are 80.58 on the weekly and maybe 89.05 on the monthly.
$EA 12/17 155c > 146.59
Nearly FTFC up closed inside last week. Eyeing for a 3-1-2 Bullish Continuation on the weekly since the 3-1-2 monthly is in force already (technically 2 cents away as of today). 147.76 for next target and above 150.30 is a new ATH, so the 155c with 12/17 expiration buys some time. But keep in mind that $EA is at top of broadening formation on the monthly at around 150, so this could trigger a reversal as well.
$FB 12/17 380c > 345.02
I hate this stock and company but it looks strong and if I can profit from that run up, why not? 🤷
A possible 2-1-2 Bullish Continuation, measured move on the weekly above 344.79 would also trigger near the 2-2 Bullish Reversal monthly in force at 345.02. My targets are at 355.15, 361.03 and far away at mid of December 384.33. So the 380c won’t go ITM maybe but if we get close and have still some time that 380c should be a good profitable trade.
$FISV 12/17 110c > 101.70
Not a regular stock on my trade list but since it has a double inside week setup I expect a move in a direction. And since month, week and day is green I take the long bullish setup for this stock.
So a 3-1-1-2u Bullish Reversal above 101.70 with targets at 103.75, 104.77 and maybe 111.84 on the month, which would trigger a 2-2 Bullish Reversal there.
Older #SundaySwing ideas
Please also have a look at my previous #SundaySwing ideas which still have some setups (as time of this writing) for a possible entry for me.